The Possible and the Probable
by Roger Lyons
In previous posts I’ve noted that breeding methods are subject to conditions of possible effectiveness. That is to say, any given topic of pedigree discussion–a nick, a method of inbreeding, any combination of one ancestor with another–can yield a stakes winner if certain conditions are met by the specific cross. By definition, a cross that does not meet any conditions of possible effectiveness has virtually no chance of yielding superior performance. We can’t always know whether or not a cross meets conditions of possible effectiveness, but, given what is at stake, any evidence of such conditions is worth considering.
I would go so far as to submit that the conditions of possible effectiveness are crucial to determining the probability of superior performance from a cross. Here’s a case in point.
Last year I mentioned the nick between Galileo and the sons of Doubly Sure–Kris (by Sharpen Up), Diesis (by Sharpen Up), and Presidium (by General Assembly). At that time, 25 mares with one of those three sires in their ancestries had produced foals by Galileo, and six different crosses had yielded superior runners, including three G1 winners (Sixties Icon, Lush Lashes, and Cape Blanco) and New Zealand, which ran second in the Irish St. Leger (G1). Since then, Gallic Star, whose third dam is by Kris, won the listed Silver Tankard S. in England, bringing the total number of superior runners to seven.
Thus, assuming a mare of similar quality in some descent of Kris, Diesis, or Presidium–all out of the mare Doubly Sure–the probability that she can produce a Galileo foal capable of superior performance is at least .28, the probability of a G1 winner at least .12. Don’t get caught up in the fact that Kris and Diesis are by Sharpen Up. Galileo’s record of 7/53 with Sharpen Up suggests only a .13 probability of superior performance (not adjusted for the conditions of possible effectiveness).
But, we know from the numbers that the presence of a son of Doubly Sure in the ancestry of a mare is a condition of possible effectiveness for offspring of Galileo. That condition is met by 24 of the 53 mares with Sharpen Up in their ancestries, and six of those seven dams of superior runners met that condition. This means that Galileo’s strike rate with mares in descent of Sharpen Up, but not through a son of Doubly Sure, was only 1/29, with a probability of only .034 of yielding a superior runner. In other words, those cases do not meet Galileo’s conditions of possible effectiveness with Sharpen Up.
It’s perfectly reasonable to think of the probability of success as a frequency of superior performance from opportunity, but that reasoning goes wrong in thinking of opportunity as nothing more than the number of times a cross has been tried. It might be fair to say that the number of times a cross has been tried constitutes its nominal opportunity, but the real opportunity is defined by the cases that actually meet conditions of possible effectiveness. An “opportunity” that has virtually no chance of success is an opportunity you can do without, especially when trying to pin down a true probability of superior performance.
Posted by Roger Lyons on Thursday, April 14, 2011 at 6:43 am.
Galileo and the Sons of Doubly Sure
by Roger Lyons
The cross that yielded Cape Blanco (Galileo-Laurel Delight, by Presidium, by General Assembly), recent winner of the Dante S. at York, is formally an A nick based on the Sadler’s Wells-General Assembly cross. Galileo may never get enough opportunity with Presidium mares to confirm a simple sire-broodmare sire nick in the conventional way, but this is not a conventional nick.
The fact is that Galileo has done a lot better with mares whose ancestries contain Presidium’s dam, Doubly Sure, than he’s done with Secretariat-line mares. Seven of his 27 mates that had Doubly Sure in their ancestries produced superior runners by him, including Cape Blanco’s dam.
Now, Doubly Sure is also the dam of Kris and Diesis, both by Sharpen Up, and they both have simple A+ nicks with Galileo. Furthermore, the numbers say Galileo’s nicks with Kris and Diesis are not attributable to their sire line. Galileo has sired foals out of 53 mares that have Sharpen Up in their ancestries (the whole ancestry, not just the sire line), and the only mares among them that produced superior runners by Galileo are those that have Sharpen Up descending through either Kris or Diesis. None of the 27 mares that have Sharpen Up through strains other than Kris or Diesis produced a superior runner by Galileo. Yet, Galileo’s combined strike rate with Kris and Diesis is 6/24 (25% superior runners).
Overwhelmingly, the numbers point to Doubly Sure as the key factor, and that’s the proof that Cape Blanco is bred from a simple nick with her son, Presidium.
Posted by Roger Lyons on Thursday, May 20, 2010 at 12:01 pm.