Dissident Ancestors
by Roger Lyons
The point of my last post was, in part, to suggest that certain dissident ancestors of broodmares pose special problems for stallion selection. They’re not carrying signs and throwing rocks, but the troublemakers assert themselves so forcefully that some seemingly well bred mares will have severely limited opportunity for a good match–or none at all.
I’ll just name three ancestors on my watch list: Graustark, Halo, and Nureyev. I’m not really sure about Nureyev. Let’s call him an ancestor of interest, but one can’t afford to be squeamish when rounding up suspected dissidents. You never know where a seemingly innocent association might lead. What these three have in common is that an unusually large proportion of stallions don’t like them very much. That’s enough to warrant indefinite detention on pedigree security grounds. If they’re innocent, let them prove it.
Never mind that in the right pedigree context those ancestors can have powerfully beneficial effects. Individual merit doesn’t count for much when a pedigree security interest is at stake.
According to eCompuSire, the online pedigree intelligence asset, six stakes winners worldwide are out of mares in descent of Graustark, Halo, and Nureyev within five generations. I’m afraid that’s not enough to establish their innocence. Even the most exculpatory evidence, such as a record of stakes production, readily turns against the perpetrators. Just watch.
The dam of Treasure (Anabaa ex Treasure Queen, by Kingmambo), winner of the Prix de la Vallee d’Auge in France, has Halo as the sire of her second dam, and she has Nureyev and Graustark by virtue of Kingmambo’s dam, Miesque.
The dam of Bottega (Mineshaft ex Sun Is Up, by Sunday Silence), winner of the Criterium du Languedoc in France, has Halo as the sire of Sunday Silence, and she has Nureyev and Graustark by virtue of her second dam, Miesque.
The dam of Sunday Sunrise (Lemon Drop Kid ex Sun Is Up [same dam as Bottega], by Sunday Silence), winner of the Veteran S. in New Mexico (must impose a travel ban), has Halo as the sire of Sunday Silence and has Nureyev and Graustark by virtue of her second dam, Miesque. Furthermore, Sunday Sunrise is by a son of Kingmambo, out of Miesque.
The dam of Indigo Cat (Storm Cat ex Bluemambo, by Kingmambo), winner of the Hampton Court S. in the UK, has Halo as the sire of her second dam and Nureyev and Graustark by virtue of Kingmambo’s dam, Miesque.
The dam of Air Zipangu (El Condor Pasa ex Air Passion, by Halo), winner of the Stayer S. in Japan, has Halo as her sire, Nureyev as her broodmare sire, and Graustark as the sire line of her second dam. Not incidentally, Air Zipangu is by a son of Kingmambo, whose dam is Miesque.
The dam of Link Man (Torreador ex Western Smoke, by Among Men), winner of the Gold Medallion (G1) and other group stakes in South Africa, is the only one among the dams of these six SWs whose contribution of Halo, Graustark, and Nureyev is not controlled in some fashion by Miesque–and in one case (Sunday Sunrise) inbreeding to Miesque. If you disqualify the five because they’re all mediated by one freakishly good broodmare, then what you have left is only one SW worldwide–a G1 winner, to be sure–to testify in defense of mares descending from all three of these ancestors.
By the way, eCompuSire is what you need when you haul an ancestor in for questioning. It’s the waterboard of enhanced pedigree interrogation techniques. See subscription details at the eNicks website–Products tab. Did I not mention that I have a personal stake in that product? Wouldn’t want to breach any ethical constraints.
Posted by Roger Lyons on Friday, March 18, 2011 at 4:38 am.
High Upside, High Downside Risk
by Roger Lyons
What do Lyphard, Fappiano, and Nureyev have in common? As ancestors of dams, each of these sires passes on respective traits that rub a lot of stallions the wrong way, but that contribute in favorable ways to the offspring of a lot of other stallions. We know this because of the high approval and high disapproval rates shown in the table of ancestor preferences for these three ancestors. In that respect, they represent a distinctive category of ancestors–a category for which stallion selection is faced with very high upside and very high downside risk.
Based on that table, there’s a 29% chance that a stallion whose name you pick out of a hat will have a higher-than-average strike rate with mares in descent of Lyphard; but there’s a 27% chance that a stallion chosen at random will have a lower-than-average strike rate with those mares.
Just a cursory look at the table suggests what a distinctive profile that is for an ancestor. Fappiano is similar, with a 27.5% approval rate and a 31% disapproval rate, and Nureyev has a 28% approval rate and a 26% disapproval rate. You can find other stallions with a similar profile. It’s not particularly rare, but it’s rarely this extreme.
In order for the stallion population to respond the way it does, the distinctive traits these three ancestors contribute–along with other ancestors of this statistical profile–would have to pass through to foals on a very consistent basis. Furthermore, in order to complement the contributions of a lot of stallions, but clash with the contributions of many others, those traits would have to be distinctive in character, but without being particularly idiosyncratic, as in the case of Graustark.
That much can be inferred from the numbers. As a numbers cruncher, I have no idea what traits are at issue in the contributions of Lyphard, Fappiano, and Nureyev and wouldn’t have the eye to discern them if they were pointed out to me. Still, the numbers say it’s something to consider.
Posted by Roger Lyons on Monday, March 7, 2011 at 7:48 am.