Measuring Dam Lines
by Roger Lyons
Every few years, around November sale time, I survey female lines to see how their rankings have shifted over time. The terms “survey” and “ranking” require definition. This time round, I pulled out the winners of stakes, as compiled by WTC, that were run from 1995 to the present and tabulated every occurrence of every dam in the female lines of these SWs going back seven generations, along with the generational distance of each occurrence.
Then I crunched the numbers as usual to find out for each dam 1) how many SWs were descended from her and 2) the average generational distance of her occurrence in the female lines of those SWs. That’s all you need in order to get a rough idea of relative contemporary influence because, if you divide the number of SWs by the average generational distance at which the dam occurred in the female lines, then you end up with an index that you can use to rank the dams in a more or less valid way–based on the number of SWs per average number of generations removed. Let’s call it the Dam Line Index (DLI).
For example, La Troienne, which ranks highest among the 70,659 individual dams represented, occurs in the female line (within seven generations) of 298 SWs (since 1995) at an average of 6.42 generational removes. That means her DLI is 298 / 6.42 = 46.42, which is the number of SWs descended from her per generation.
The average generational distance is useful because it controls to some extent for the differential opportunity of mares of different eras. Best in Show, for example, which ranks 10th, occurred in the female lines of 78 SWs and at an average generational distance of only 3.79 generations. So, the index of her influence is 20.58 SWs per generation. That’s a lot less than La Troienne, but not that much less than Escutcheon, which has the second-highest rank, at 28.21 and an average generational distance of 6.38.
Now, there’s always going to be someone who says (without thinking) that seven generations is not enough since La Troienne occurs beyond the seventh generation of some contemporary SWs. That is an untenable position, though, because, if you extend that rationale across the population of dams (not just La Troienne), there can be no generational limit that will satisfy them all.
Besides, the method already has an inherent bias in favor of the older dams. Consider that Urban Sea, dam of sires Galileo and Sea the Stars, plus other high-class sons and daughters, ranks last (362nd) among dams with a DLI of at least 7.0. She is the dam of seven SWs, but has not had the advantage of subsequent generations through which to multiply her influence. She’s almost certainly bound to be better as a tail-female influence than she ranks now, and increasing the maximum generational distance of the survey would only serve to exaggerate the bias against her.
Click here to view the alphabetical list of top-40 dam lines and here to view the same list in rank order.
More about this topic in subsequent posts.
Posted by Roger Lyons on Wednesday, October 20, 2010 at 9:20 am.