The Next Little Thing
The ad agencies that want you to think every new gadget represents a “paradigm shift” have rendered that term even less meaningful (although possibly more valuable) than it was when Thomas Kuhn invented it in the early 1960s. To those who actually do science, as opposed to those who sell it, the name Karl Popper is much more important. He was the philosopher of science who showed how knowledge advances by accumulations of the incremental, piecemeal efforts of uncelebrated researchers asking small questions and getting small, but important, answers.
I’m reminded of Popper’s empiricism–and in an ironic way–when I read about the crazy economic policy coming out of both the White House and Paul Ryan’s House budget committee (because a new paradigm in economic policy has no use for the lessons of the past) and, for a different reason, when I’m asked a question about pedigree. Everywhere, people are looking for a paradigm, and it seems like the shiftier it is, the better it sells. The typical pedigree question is right out of the Thomas Kuhn playbook, but it’s still only the little Karl Popper moves that really matter.
My problem with the typical pedigree question is that it’s paradigmatic in scope, which means it has to be deconstructed before it can be answered. For example, how are the Gone West-line sires doing with mares in descent of Mr. Prospector? I might answer that one in the following way, starting with my usual, “Well, it depends.”
All of the Gone West-line sires are managing returns of Mr. Prospector differently from one another. But here’s a way to look at the big picture if that’s what you really want to do. Gone West is by Mr. Prospector, so the cross always involves inbreeding. Breeders are generally sold on that, so it gets lots of opportunity. It happens, though, that every single one of the proven Gone West-line sires has a lower frequency of superior runners from those that are inbred at 4×4 or closer than from those that are not. Insofar as inbreeding to Mr. Prospector figures in that, the picture doesn’t look good, but, again, it depends.
The best way to deal justly with a broad question like that is to give it enough rope to hang itself. It happens, incidentally, that almost all of the A.P. Indy-line sires, most of which have Mr. Prospector in their ancestries, have a higher frequency of superior runners from those that are inbred 4×4 or closer than from those that are not–just the opposite of the Gone West-line sires.
Interesting facts, but facts that have dubious practical import. You’re snake-bitten if you breed the mare to one of the two or three fashionable A.P. Indy-line sires that don’t cope very well with mares in descent of Mr. Prospector.
So, what’s my view of close inbreeding? Well, it depends. . . .
Clearly, the particular trumps the general. The devil’s in the details, as always.
April 11th, 2011 at 10:35 am