Pedigree Profile: Eskendereya
by Roger Lyons
The norm in pedigree interpretation is to cite the case of an individual stakes winner and attribute its superiority as a racehorse to any pet theory one likes. One might cite the case of Footstepsinthesand (Giant’s Causeway–Glatisant, by Rainbow Quest), for example, and, in near isolation from other relevant cases, tag linebreeding through Storm Bird and close genetic relative Nijinsky II as a factor. However, that pedigree consultants happen to be selling linebreeding does not make it a reliable norm of pedigree interpretation.
In fact, Giant’s Causeway has sired foals out of 108 mares with Nijinsky II in their ancestries through his 2006 crop, and only six of those mares produced superior runners by him. Even when attempting to account for the superiority of a given runner, it’s important to know the ways in which the breeding of that runner is exceptional, relative to its broader pedigree context. I think it says as much about Giant’s Causeway as anything else I’ve ever seen that Footstepsinthesand’s third dam is by Grey Sovereign, of all things (that great quarter-horse sire line), with which, through females only, Giant’s Causeway has a strike rate of 5/16! And, it explains a lot about Footstepsinthesand, but stay away from the male strains (only 1/35).
It’s quite another thing, then, to cite an individual runner and to assess its breeding from the standpoint of its larger populational and pedigree context. True, that’s what I happen to be selling, but it’s hardly a circumstantial choice. The kind of statistical underpinning required by that approach is not as difficult as weaving a rope of sand, but, if it were easy to come by, everybody would be doing it.
The dam of Eskendereya (Giant’s Causeway–Aldebaran Light, by Seattle Slew) does not have Nijinsky II in her ancestry. If she did, there’s only about a 5% chance that Eskendereya would be one of Giant’s Causeway’s better runners, much less likely favorite for the 2010 Kentucky Derby. The breeding of his dam is, in fact, much more typical of the dams of Giant’s Causeway’s best runners, but not overwhelmingly so. From the standpoint of ancestors that have proven highly favorable to Giant’s Causeway, she ranks at the 48th percentile among the dams of all the foals he’s sired.
The ancestors with which Giant’s Causeway has had very good strike rates don’t tell the story in this case, however. Aldebaran Light is a mare whose profile with Giant’s Causeway is characterized by a cluster of ancestors with which he has had an average rate of stakes production. With Seattle Slew, sire of Aldebaran Light, Giant’s Causeway has a strike rate of 7/75. That’s about as close to his average as an ancestor can be without nailing it exactly.
It’s no secret that Giant’s Causeway prefers Raise a Native to Northern Dancer, but Alydar, sire of Eskendereya’s second dam, has not been a favorite. He much prefers Mr. Prospector. His strike rate with Alydar is 2/34 overall, somewhat below average, but that’s deceptive because both of those superior runners were out of mares to which Alydar descended through female strains, as in this case. Giant’s Causeway’s strike rate with Alydar through female strains is 2/24, right around his average.
Those two runners are indicative. The dam of Pointilliste, winner of multiple stakes in France, including the Prix de Barbeville (G3), is by Alydar and out of a Habitat mare. She won stakes at distances of 12 and 15 furlongs. However, the breeding of Flying Spur, second to Rachel Alexandra in last year’s Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) is more telling. Her dam, Lakeway, is bred on exactly the same sire-line cross as the dam of Eskendereya. She’s by Seattle Slew and out of an Alydar mare.
So, both logically and actually, a cluster of ancestors that yield average frequencies of superior runners for a stallion does not mean you should expect an average runner. Such a profile still means an average rate of production of superior runners. So, it’s hardly surprising that a horse like Eskendereya could result from that kind of profile even though one can’t point to some overwhelmingly favorable factor and say, with warrantable confidence, “That’s why.”
[…] Pedigree Profile: Eskendereya (4/10/10) Roger takes a look at the pedigree of the leading contender for the Kentucky Derby using methodology behind his “Lyons Score.” […]
April 18th, 2010 at 2:39 pm