Politics and War Front

By Elaine Belval

I find it strange how politics can overlap into other aspects of your life in unexpected ways. Without getting too political, let’s just say I didn’t vote for George Bush.

In New Zealand, Waikato Stud stands one of the best stallions in the region, named O’Reilly. Now, every time this sire shows up in the pedigree of SWs (and he shows up a lot!), I cringe. O’Reilly is doing his best to continue the line of Northern Dancer through Try My Best.  Now, O’Reilly was bred in New Zealand and he was born in 1993, so I seriously doubt he is named for a certain conservative TV personality by the same name. But, that doesn’t stop the internal cringe.

Now, imagine a horse actually named for said TV personality’s TV show!

The Factor proved super-impressive winning the G2 Rebel S. at Oaklawn some weeks back. I was sure he was a tired horse turning into the stretch, ready to be overwhelmed by several of his competitors. But, a couple of taps, and before I knew it, he was powering home by lengths. Clearly, an extended eight furlongs is not beyond this horse’s capabilities. He is an exciting prospect, Derby or not.

His sire, War Front, is proving a revelation, especially to me.

As I have mentioned before, selecting future good stallions from among unproven sires is one of the most difficult things in horse racing, and few people are truly experts at it. And I have to admit, War Front was not a stallion I had high expectations for.

It’s not as if he didn’t stand at one of the most successful stallions farms in racing history (Claiborne Farm). It’s not like he didn’t have an excellent pedigree (by leading sire Danzig out of SW and multiple GSP Starry Dreamer. She, in turn, the dam of three other SWs). But, while War Front was a very successful runner (winning the G2 Vanderbilt S. and finishing second in two G1 races), he was not a G1 winner. And, while Danzig has a couple of very nice sons at stud in the US (including Kentucky-based Exchange Rate and Langfuhr), his US-based sons have not come close to a Danehill’s or Green Desert’s influence in the US. So,  I thought War Front was up against it.

Apparently my opinion didn’t matter to War Front.

He is the current leading second-crop sire in 2011. Perhaps more astonishing, he is currently ranked 15th on the General Sire List (mind you, he has just one crop of just turned three-year-old racing right now). He is ranked ahead of such quality sires as Sky Mesa, Stormy Atlantic, and Tiznow. Of course, it doesn’t hurt that he has two contenders for the 2011 Kentucky Derby. Soldat was an impressive winner of the G2 Fountain of Youth and is headed towards the Derby despite a fifth-place finish in the Florida Derby. And The Factor will be heavily favored this weekend in the Arkansas Derby.

War Front is showing all the signs of being as versatile as his sire Danzig was. Half of his SWs were two-year-old SWs, and three have won on turf (including the ultra-versatile Soldat). This bodes well for War Front, as he is certain to attract a wide range of mares. War Front stands at Claiborne Farm, and his 2011 fee is $15,000 (but, good luck getting to him at this point!).

Now, I generally make my Derby predictions Derby week. But, let’s just say, I am more likely to be rooting for Soldat—even with the Florida Derby loss—than The Factor!

(Elaine Belval is senior pedigree analyst at WTC.)

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Mineshaft’s resurgence

By Sid Fernando

Dialed In, the winner of the G1 Florida Derby Sunday at Gulfstream Park, is by the A.P. Indy sire Mineshaft, who started his career at Lane’s End with great fanfare and a $100,000 stud fee in 2004, wobbled early, but has come on late to make a case for himself and vindicate the view we had of him here at WTC, Inc.

Four years ago, when Mineshaft’s first crop of 2-year-olds hit the track in 2007, the late Jack Werk, founder of WTC, Inc., predicted big things for the stallion in a post here on April 17, 2007, on freshmen sires:

April 17th, 2007

1. VINDICATION
I love Vindication’s chances to become 2007′s leading freshman sire, as well as becoming a major long-term success. He’s got almost all the things I like to see in a stallion prospect. He was a brilliant runner. He retired undefeated, won the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, and was named Champion 2YO of 2002.
From a pedigree standpoint, he is, in my opinion, the best outcross (no Mr. Prospector and only one distant strain of Northern Dancer in his pedigree) to come along in the U.S. since A.P. Indy (also by Seattle Slew).
He is also a standout conformationally, as his $2.15 million yearling sale price would indicate. More importantly, he is passing on his athletic good looks to his progeny. He had the highest weanling average and second-highest yearling average among all freshman sires with several bringing over a million dollars.
I thought he was a bargain at $50,000 his first year at stud and the same when they increased his fee to $60,000 the second year. Commercial breeders agree and I expect those who breed to race will agree before the year is over!

2. MINESHAFT
I don’t know if he will sire enough precocious two-year-olds to get him to the top of the standings by year’s end, but as a future stallion superstar, Mineshaft is a no-brainer! He’s by A.P. Indy, and out of a Mr. Prospector mare who produced five foals and they are ALL stakes winners. After a mediocre racing career on the turf in Europe at two and three, he came home where he promptly won seven stakes races (four of them G1), and earned $2.2 million + at four, for which he was named 2003′s Horse of the Year. He had the second-highest weanling average and third-highest yearling average among all freshman sires. Great pedigree, great race record, great sale averages — what more can I say?

3. EMPIRE MAKER
Empire Maker is definitely capable of proving me wrong on my top two selections! He’s a classic winner with a blue-chip pedigree top and bottom. He is by Unbridled and out the incomparable Toussaud, dam of five graded stakes winners. And, Empire Maker had the highest yearling sale average of all the freshman sires.
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Vindication is dead, Empire Maker—successful here—is now in Japan, but Mineshaft continues to sire quality SWs after appearing early that he might flop. He is also a part of the A.P. Indy brigade of sires (and Vindication was by Slew) that we were and are bullish on for the US environment because they are suited for dirt and bring stamina back to the equation. Horses like Malibu Moon, Pulpit and his sons (which include Tapit), plus younger studs Congrats and Bernardini and others are continuing the momentum of this line.

Last year, A.P. Indy’s son Pulpit was represented by the Florida Derby winner Ice Box for Dialed In’s connections—owner Robert LaPenta and trainer Nick Zito—and that colt ran a good second in the Kentucky Derby. Dialed In is now headed to Louisville, too, where he stands a great chance. By winning the Florida Derby, Dialed in became his sire’s second G1 winner behind G1 sprinter Discreetly Mine—now at stud at Lane’s End.

Altogether the sire of 20 SWs (which does not include his Russian Derby winner and President’s Cup winner Monomakh), Mineshaft has shown a tendency to get speedier types than he himself was on the track, but part of this may be due to the inbreeding to Mr. Prospector that is evident in many of his SWs. Plus in the case of his son Fly Down—also trained by Zito until recently—it didn’t stop him from a second-place finish in the Belmont Stakes.

Mineshaft stands for $25,000 live foal and is the current leading fourth-crop sire.

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