The following article on Lookin at Lucky, who won the Preakness Stakes today, was written for Zatt magazine’s Derby issue. The Smart Strike colt was bred by WTC, Inc., client Gulf Coast Farms, LLC, and he is co-owned by Mike Pegram and trained by Bob Baffert, the same owner-trainer combo that won the 1998 Kentucky Derby and Preakness with Real Quiet, who was bred by the late WTC client Eduardo Gaviria. WTC congratulates the connections of Lookin at Lucky!
By Sid Fernando
Lookin at Lucky is the pick here to win the Kentucky Derby, but there are other reasons to look at “Lucky” too aside from a purely pedigree slant. A winner of 6 of 8 starts and $1,513,000, Lookin at Lucky was the champion 2-year-old colt of 2009 and has won three races at the highest level. His sire, Smart Strike, also sire of the celebrated Curlin, was the champion stallion of 2007 and 2008. His trainer, Bob Baffert, has won the Kentucky Derby three times already, with War Emblem in 2002, Real Quiet in 1998, and Silver Charm in 1997. His co-owner Mike Pegram also owned Derby winner Real Quiet. His dam, Private Feeling, also produced the Grade 2 winner Kensei and sold last November for $2 million at Fasig-Tipton. His breeder, Gulf Coast Farms LLC, which breeds and sells its produce at yearling and 2-year-olds-in-training sales, purchased and initially raced future Kentucky Derby winner Thunder Gulch. Moreover, Gulf Coast Farms LLC was advised on the mating that produced Lookin at Lucky by the late pedigree adviser Jack Werk’s Werk Thoroughbred Consultants, Inc. (WTC), which had previously assisted breeder Eduardo Gaviria with the mating that produced Derby winner Real Quiet.
Lance Robinson and veterinarian Jerry Bailey are the principals behind the successful Gulf Coast Farms LLC operation. Robinson is in charge of the pedigree planning, and Bailey does the breaking and training. Each year Robinson sends WTC a list of its mares, and WTC issues a number of stallion recommendations for each mare based on pedigree research. Robinson and Bailey review the recommendations and then choose the mates for the mares by incorporating their views into the equation, which include physical matches between sires and mares.
In the case of Private Feeling, WTC’s number one selection for her was the Mr. Prospector horse Smart Strike, and Robinson and Bailey went with it. The next two WTC choices for the mare were Pulpit (sire of 2010 Grade 1 Florida Derby winner Ice Box) and Speightstown, now a successful young sire but at that time unproven.
Jack Werk wrote in 2009 about some reasons why Smart Strike was chosen by WTC:
“Smart Strike and Pulpit were proven horses, and we liked Smart Strike the best because of the powerful Mr. Prospector/Danzig cross and our long-term projections that Smart Strike would become a particularly strong cross with Belong to Me mares. At the time, Belong to Me was just beginning his career as a broodmare sire but did have 2 SWs from the Mr. Prospector line: Doctor Voodoo, by Petionville; and Last Best Place, by Gone West.
“Well, our projections have been validated in 2009 as Smart Strike has had 3 SWs out of Belong to Me mares this year: (G1 winner Lookin on Lucky, G2 winner Papa Clem and unrestricted SW Striking Tomisue)! ”
Not even the best-laid plans can guarantee what a sales foal will look like, however. Lookin at Lucky was unlucky as a foal not to have perfect conformation—paramount for the success of a commercial auction sales horse. In fact, he was operated on in the April of his yearling sales year in both stifles for OCD lesions and also had “mild sesamoiditis” in his left front ankle “moderate mid-sagittal ridge erosion” in his right front ankle and “moderate sesamoiditis” in his left hind ankle, according to a veterinarian’s report first made public in the Paulick Report. Consequently, he failed to sell for $35,000 at the 2008 Keeneland September sale.
Undeterred, Robinson and Bailey put the colt back into the Keeneland April 2-year-olds in training sale in 2009, where Baffert bought the colt for $475,000 after he’d registered a quick work. The 2008 Kentucky Derby winner Big Brown was plucked for $190,000 in 2007 from this same sale, and in recent years 2-year-olds in training sales have become important sources for Derby contenders.
Before Big Brown, there were two Kentucky Derby winners who’d been purchased out of 2-year-olds in training sales: 2001 winner Monarchos, purchased for $170,000 at the Fasig-Tipton February sale in 2000; and 1997 winner Silver Charm, a $100,000 purchase at the 1996 OBS April sale. The latter, of course, was trained by Baffert.
When Baffert purchased Lookin at Lucky at Keeneland April, he hadn’t known about the colt’s surgery as a yearling—and he probably didn’t care. A true horseman with a feel for the animal, Baffert has knowingly and unknowingly defied veterinary reports before. In Real Quiet, Baffert had been unaware when he paid $17,000 for him at Keeneland September that the future Derby winner had undergone surgery as an April yearling for transphyseal bridging to fix a case of knock-knees. And in War Emblem, in which he purchased a 90 percent stake for $900,000 for the Thoroughbred Corp. after the Illinois Derby and just weeks before the Kentucky Derby, Baffert took a chance on a colt that other potential buyers had passed on for veterinary reasons.
Baffert recently told me that he’s high on Lookin at Lucky, a colt who looks ready to peak on Derby day. He’s a handy type who’s made a career of mostly overcoming trouble, and that experience should count for much in the high-pressure race; but the colt also has a habit of winning, and he has the profile of that well-raced juvenile that always seems to do well in the Derby.
More to the point, his pedigree will not let him down when the real running separates the men from the boys in the last eighth of a mile. His sire, Smart Strike, is well known among breeders as a sire of US stamina, something well exemplified by Curlin, and his dam adds class and speed to the equation. Her Kensei, by Mr.Greeley, was capable of winning the Jim Dandy over nine furlongs, and her Lookin at Lucky is well equipped to win over 10 furlongs.
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