Archive for May, 2010
Thursday, May 27th, 2010
By Elaine Belval
Samuel Morse, a 2-year-old colt by Danehill Dancer out of champion Eliza, won the Marble Hill Stakes at the Curragh on May 23rd. It is not surprising he is by Danehill Dancer, one of the leading sires in Europe. He has over 100 SWs, and just over 30% are 2-year-old SWs.
And it isn’t surprising that a SW is out of champion Eliza. Numerous studies have shown that the best indication of a mare’s future production record is her own racing ability, and Eliza was a champion 2-year-old who finished second in the Kentucky Oaks (to Dispute) and third in the Santa Anita Derby (to Personal Hope).
But, what is surprising is that Eliza went to leading sire Danehill Dancer.
Eliza was bred in Kentucky by multiple Eclipse-award-winning owner and breeder Allen E. Paulson. She was by leading sire Mt. Livermore, who had a variety of SWs all over the world. But, Eliza’s female family was decidedly American. Her dam, Daring Bidder by Bold Bidder, was bred in Virginia by George Swift, Jr. Paulson purchased the filly as a yearling for $125,000. Despite being unraced, Daring Bidder produced six black type performers for Paulson led by Eliza and G1 Santa Anita Derby winner Dinard.
Eliza sold at the Keeneland November Sale in 1999 as part of Paulson’s dispersal. In-foal to A.P. Indy, she brought $1.7 million selling to Eaton Sales. Her first foal, a filly by Theatrical, was only 3. But, up until Samuel Morse, Eliza has had 11 foals, and her best performer was the graded stakes-placed Miss Doolittle by Storm Cat. Foals by Storm Cat and A.P. Indy failed to produce at the track. In fact, two of Eliza’s daughters had already produced SWs including Miss Doolittle.
Rather than give up, breeder Strategy Bloodstock decided to go bold, and sent Eliza to Ireland and leading European sire Danehill Dancer. Not many breeders are willing to take a chance on such a dramatic change with a 17-year-old mare. Instead, you see such mares move down the stallion ranks; instead of going to Storm Cat or A.P. Indy, they might go to a Forestry or a Mineshaft, for example. But rather than reduce the stud fee investment, Strategy decided to change the stallion parameters totally, and they were rewarded with a black-type performer. And Eliza has a 2009 filly by leading European sire Galileo to follow.
Samuel Morse is only the second SW from the Danehill/Mt. Livermore cross (the other being Australian GSW Lovemelikearock). With Eliza’s American pedigree, Samuel Morse has no inbreeding within five generations.
The Marble Hill Stakes may be the first in a line of prestigious 2-year-old stakes for the colt, proving that sometimes all a truly great racemare needs to prove herself in the breeding shed is the right type of stallion. Kudos to Strategy Bloodstock for taking that chance.
(Elaine Belval is senior pedigree analyst at WTC.)
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Wednesday, May 19th, 2010
By Elaine Belval
The old cliché says “It’s one thing to be lucky, it’s another thing to be good.” It’s another thing to be both lucky and good.
This certainly applies to leading young stallion Sky Mesa, who sired two stakes winners on May 15th. Sky Mesa started off very, very good. He won all three starts at 2, including the G1 Hopeful Stakes. An injury kept him off the Triple Crown trail, but he returned at 3 to finish second in the G1 Haskell to Peace Rules.
As a son of Pulpit out of a GSW by Storm Cat, great things were expected of him in the breeding shed. He retired to Three Chimneys Farm for a fee of $30,000. However, his first crop of 2YOs (racing in 2007) resulted in a modest 14 winners and no graded stakes winners. This is where a bit of luck came in. Sky Mesa’s fee for 2008 was reduced to $15,000 to reflect the stats (and those breeders who paid that fee are looking at a very nice return on investment for sales yearlings this year).
Sky Mesa, you see, showed a remarkable turnaround in 2008 with 10 SWs, led by G1 winner Sky Diva and GSWs Storm Mesa, Terrain, Skylighter and Beethoven (three of those SWs being 2YOs of 2008). Since then, things haven’t slowed down for the stallion. On May 15th, Sky Mesa’s son Thiskyhasnolimit won the Matt Winn S. at Churchill Downs (he was a GSW at 2). His daughter Final Mesa won the Polly Drummond S. at Delaware Park, one of the first 2YO stakes races of 2010. Since May 1st, Sky Mesa also has been represented by General Quarters, winner of the G1 Woodford Reserve Turf Classic at Churchill Downs on Derby Day (making him a G1 winner on turf and Polytrack). His daughter Feeling Fancy won the Federal Way H. at Emerald Downs on May 9th. And, also this past weekend, his stakes-winning daughter Third Dawn finished third in the G2 Milady H. And it is only May 19th. There are still two weeks left in the month. Sky Mesa continues to stand at Three Chimneys Farm and his 2010 fee is $25,000.
(Elaine Belval is senior pedigree analyst at WTC.)
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Saturday, May 15th, 2010
The following article on Lookin at Lucky, who won the Preakness Stakes today, was written for Zatt magazine’s Derby issue. The Smart Strike colt was bred by WTC, Inc., client Gulf Coast Farms, LLC, and he is co-owned by Mike Pegram and trained by Bob Baffert, the same owner-trainer combo that won the 1998 Kentucky Derby and Preakness with Real Quiet, who was bred by the late WTC client Eduardo Gaviria. WTC congratulates the connections of Lookin at Lucky!
By Sid Fernando
Lookin at Lucky is the pick here to win the Kentucky Derby, but there are other reasons to look at “Lucky” too aside from a purely pedigree slant. A winner of 6 of 8 starts and $1,513,000, Lookin at Lucky was the champion 2-year-old colt of 2009 and has won three races at the highest level. His sire, Smart Strike, also sire of the celebrated Curlin, was the champion stallion of 2007 and 2008. His trainer, Bob Baffert, has won the Kentucky Derby three times already, with War Emblem in 2002, Real Quiet in 1998, and Silver Charm in 1997. His co-owner Mike Pegram also owned Derby winner Real Quiet. His dam, Private Feeling, also produced the Grade 2 winner Kensei and sold last November for $2 million at Fasig-Tipton. His breeder, Gulf Coast Farms LLC, which breeds and sells its produce at yearling and 2-year-olds-in-training sales, purchased and initially raced future Kentucky Derby winner Thunder Gulch. Moreover, Gulf Coast Farms LLC was advised on the mating that produced Lookin at Lucky by the late pedigree adviser Jack Werk’s Werk Thoroughbred Consultants, Inc. (WTC), which had previously assisted breeder Eduardo Gaviria with the mating that produced Derby winner Real Quiet.
Lance Robinson and veterinarian Jerry Bailey are the principals behind the successful Gulf Coast Farms LLC operation. Robinson is in charge of the pedigree planning, and Bailey does the breaking and training. Each year Robinson sends WTC a list of its mares, and WTC issues a number of stallion recommendations for each mare based on pedigree research. Robinson and Bailey review the recommendations and then choose the mates for the mares by incorporating their views into the equation, which include physical matches between sires and mares.
In the case of Private Feeling, WTC’s number one selection for her was the Mr. Prospector horse Smart Strike, and Robinson and Bailey went with it. The next two WTC choices for the mare were Pulpit (sire of 2010 Grade 1 Florida Derby winner Ice Box) and Speightstown, now a successful young sire but at that time unproven.
Jack Werk wrote in 2009 about some reasons why Smart Strike was chosen by WTC:
“Smart Strike and Pulpit were proven horses, and we liked Smart Strike the best because of the powerful Mr. Prospector/Danzig cross and our long-term projections that Smart Strike would become a particularly strong cross with Belong to Me mares. At the time, Belong to Me was just beginning his career as a broodmare sire but did have 2 SWs from the Mr. Prospector line: Doctor Voodoo, by Petionville; and Last Best Place, by Gone West.
“Well, our projections have been validated in 2009 as Smart Strike has had 3 SWs out of Belong to Me mares this year: (G1 winner Lookin on Lucky, G2 winner Papa Clem and unrestricted SW Striking Tomisue)! ”
Not even the best-laid plans can guarantee what a sales foal will look like, however. Lookin at Lucky was unlucky as a foal not to have perfect conformation—paramount for the success of a commercial auction sales horse. In fact, he was operated on in the April of his yearling sales year in both stifles for OCD lesions and also had “mild sesamoiditis” in his left front ankle “moderate mid-sagittal ridge erosion” in his right front ankle and “moderate sesamoiditis” in his left hind ankle, according to a veterinarian’s report first made public in the Paulick Report. Consequently, he failed to sell for $35,000 at the 2008 Keeneland September sale.
Undeterred, Robinson and Bailey put the colt back into the Keeneland April 2-year-olds in training sale in 2009, where Baffert bought the colt for $475,000 after he’d registered a quick work. The 2008 Kentucky Derby winner Big Brown was plucked for $190,000 in 2007 from this same sale, and in recent years 2-year-olds in training sales have become important sources for Derby contenders.
Before Big Brown, there were two Kentucky Derby winners who’d been purchased out of 2-year-olds in training sales: 2001 winner Monarchos, purchased for $170,000 at the Fasig-Tipton February sale in 2000; and 1997 winner Silver Charm, a $100,000 purchase at the 1996 OBS April sale. The latter, of course, was trained by Baffert.
When Baffert purchased Lookin at Lucky at Keeneland April, he hadn’t known about the colt’s surgery as a yearling—and he probably didn’t care. A true horseman with a feel for the animal, Baffert has knowingly and unknowingly defied veterinary reports before. In Real Quiet, Baffert had been unaware when he paid $17,000 for him at Keeneland September that the future Derby winner had undergone surgery as an April yearling for transphyseal bridging to fix a case of knock-knees. And in War Emblem, in which he purchased a 90 percent stake for $900,000 for the Thoroughbred Corp. after the Illinois Derby and just weeks before the Kentucky Derby, Baffert took a chance on a colt that other potential buyers had passed on for veterinary reasons.
Baffert recently told me that he’s high on Lookin at Lucky, a colt who looks ready to peak on Derby day. He’s a handy type who’s made a career of mostly overcoming trouble, and that experience should count for much in the high-pressure race; but the colt also has a habit of winning, and he has the profile of that well-raced juvenile that always seems to do well in the Derby.
More to the point, his pedigree will not let him down when the real running separates the men from the boys in the last eighth of a mile. His sire, Smart Strike, is well known among breeders as a sire of US stamina, something well exemplified by Curlin, and his dam adds class and speed to the equation. Her Kensei, by Mr.Greeley, was capable of winning the Jim Dandy over nine furlongs, and her Lookin at Lucky is well equipped to win over 10 furlongs.
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Saturday, May 8th, 2010
By Elaine Belval
It’s very rare that full brothers have any type of equal success on the track or at stud. Usually one is significantly better than the other—or others, where there are multiple siblings. Sometimes, however, a brother or brothers to a “big horse” can be more than useful, and that’s the case with New York sire Freud, who’s enjoying yet another fine season.
When Rahy’s multiple Graded stakes winning daughter Mariah’s Storm went to stud, she first visited Storm Cat. Her first foal was multiple champion and leading sire Giant’s Causeway. She returned to Storm Cat six times and produced another five black type performers including GSW You’resothrilling and the stakes-placed brothers Roar of the Tiger and Tumblebrutus.
Freud is the year-younger brother to Giant’s Causeway. Though not as talented as his G1-winning full brother, Freud was graded stakes-placed in England (defeating leading young European sire Invincible Spirit in the Cork and Orrery Stakes). He retired to stud in New York for the moderate fee of $5,000 and he made an immediate impression at stud.
From his first crop of 32 foals, he had 19 winners, nine 2yo winners, and ended with three SWs (including two winners of New York Stallion Stakes races).
His second crop had 56 foals with 12 2yo winners and five SWs including Quick Little Miss, winner of two Hollywood Park 2yo stakes (and a second to Romance is Diane in the G1 Hollywood Starlet).
Last weekend featured two New York-bred stallion stakes for 3yos. In the filly version (the Park Avenue Stakes), his talented daughter Franny Freud—a previous GSW— won for the sixth time in nine starts. She led a Freud trifecta in the race as his daughters So N So and Freud’s Notebook finished second and third.
In the colt version (the Times Square Stakes), Freud’s son General Maximus won his first stakes in four lifetime starts.
Freud now has 18 lifetime SWs (an impressive 7% to foals). And he has an equally impressive $60,000 average earnings per starter (almost 10X his 2010 stud fee of $6,500).
Freud was the leading sire in New York in 2008 and 2009 and is off to a fine start to duplicate that feat in 2010.
He stands at Sequel Stallions in New York and will shuttle to La Leyenda in Argentina for the SH season.
(Elaine Belval is Senior Pedigree Analyst at WTC, Inc.)
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Monday, May 3rd, 2010
By Sid Fernando
Although more than half the Derby field had been purchased at auction, the winner was a homebred for WinStar Farm. A member of the penultimate crop of Maria’s Mon, Super Saver was produced from the A.P. Indy mare Supercharger, who’d been purchased at auction by WinStar carrying the future Derby winner for $160,000. The family is all Phipps and the mare is a full sister to She’s a Winner, the dam of WinStar-bred Derby runner-up Bluegrass Cat. The latter is represented by his first crop of 2yos this season and has already picked up two winners. Click here to read an account of this female family and the Derby winner’s history, by Frank Mitchell, in his new pedigree column for the Paulick Report.
WTC was particularly proud to be represented Derby weekend by favorite Lookin at Lucky, a recommended mating and last season’s champion 2yo colt. But, at the risk of tooting our own horn, there were others connected to us, we’re proud to say. One was Derby third-place finisher Paddy O’Prado, a WTC “Best of Sale” purchased by client Jerry Crawford. Jerry was nice enough to call the office on Friday to remind us that Paddy was a “three-star” recommendation he’d purchased for $105,000—what a bargain for an El Prado colt, in retrospect! Jerry liked this colt so much that he was back the next year to buy his Rahy half-sister for $100,000.
The following were either WTC recommended matings or “Best of Sales” :
LOOKIN AT LUCKY – WTC ASSISTED MATING for Gulf Coast Farms, LLC
ICE BOX – Best of Sale
STATELY VICTOR – Best of Sale
AMERICAN LION – Best of Sale
PADDY O’PRADO – Best of Sale (Jerry Crawford purchased on WTC Recommendation)
DEVIL MAY CARE – Best of Sale
CONVEYANCE – WTC ASSISTED MATING for Gulf Coast Farms, LLC
MISSION IMPAZIBLE – Best of Sale
AWESOME ACT – Best of Sale
Additionally, Lou Brissie, the 2yo colt who won the G3 Kentucky Juvenile Stakes on Friday, was a WTC assisted mating for client Gulf Coast Farms, LLC—the breeding operation of Lance Robinson and Jerry Bailey. Gulf Coast Farms is one of the premier sources of high-quality auction stock in the US, and we’re proud to be associated with this leading breeder. Congrats, Lance and Jerry!
Lou Brissie, a Limehouse 2yo, is yet another Graded SW for the powerful Gulf Coast Farms LLC breeding operation of Lance Robinson and Jerry Bailey. (Photo by Frances J. Karon)
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Jack Werk (1944-2010)
