By Elaine Belval
After 2007, the country entered into a recession, and prices for bloodstock tumbled 30 to 55 percent from 2007 peaks. Through the early months of 2010, indicators suggest that things may be getting better, but let’s take a look at some snapshots through 2007 to put today’s market in perspective. (All stats are based strictly on Northern Hemisphere data only.)
In 2007, in Kentucky, 358 stallions serviced 21,548 mares (average book size of 60.2). In 1992, 467 stallions serviced 14,512 mares (average book size of 31.1). The actual number of stallions covering mares in Kentucky decreased by 25 percent but the number of mares bred increased by 30 percent. Is it any wonder book size doubled?
In 2007, in the total US, 3,223 stallions covered 56,027 mares (average book size of 17.4). In 1992, 6,263 stallions covered 59,607 mares (average book size of 9.5). The number of stallions covering mares dropped by 50 percent, but the number of mares being covered decreased approximately 10 percent.
So what happened for the last 20 years, through 2007? The stallion population dropped in half while the mare population decreased slightly. And while in 1992, 24 percent of mares were bred in Kentucky, by 2007 it had increased to 38 percent.
Add in this fact. In 1987, with over 50,000 registered foals, 18 percent of the foal crop sold at auction. In 2006, with almost 38,000 registered foals, 27 percent of the foal crop sold at auction. That’s a 30 percent increase in the percent of the population going through the sales ring, which obviously had a profound effect on the collapse of the commercial markets when money dried up for the product.
In the early 1990’s, WTC developed a summary of stallion statistics for proper evaluation. These stats made it easy to determine if a stallion was priced right. The top sires, by their fifth crop, were siring 80 percent starters, almost 60 percent winners, 23 percent 2YO winners, and over 10 percent SWs.
Through 2007, the top sires (top 10 percent by stud fee), by their fifth crop, were siring 80 percent starters, 50 percent winners, 16 percent 2YO winners, and over 10 percent SWs. The average crop size was 82 foals. There was a drop in winners and 2YO winners, but not in SWs. Top sires are still top sires as a group, regardless of the era.
What has decreased noticeably in the big-book era is the average statistics for stallions below the top 10 percent that sire more foals than is average for their comparison group. For fifth-crop stallions with larger than average books (crop size averages 108 foals), their overall statistics are 71 percent starters, 47 percent winners, 17 percent 2YO winners and 6 percent SWs.
It was hard to tell anyone to keep stallion book sizes down, especially in the big economic climate that ran through the 2000’s and ended in 2007. The Random House Dictionary defines breeding, their second definition, as “the improvement or development of breeds of livestock, as by selective mating and hybridization.”
With numbers down since 2007 across the board, including mares bred, we have now been forced to practice “selective mating.” It may prove to be a blessing in the long run.
(Elaine Belval is a senior pedigree analyst at WTC, Inc.)
Fantastic insights, thoughts and truths Elaine, I have to also agree with you that I too feel that this has issued in a new era of “selected breeding”, brought forth by the economy, and perhaps applauded by the horses themselves if they could so do. 🙂 I also feel that with this now before us, breeding is asked to elevate it’s game and standardized ways of doing business. Responsible investments mean making decisions with the added benefit of extra information on the choices. I believe it is time for new things to be annexed and utilized. I feel the best is yet ahead, I do not, like some of my personal friends in life, adhere to the doom-n-gloom mentality. I have struggled like everyone, have less material things than I ever had, yet it has made me continue to evolve and elevate myself, learn from mistakes and indeed, endeavor to elevate my game. I think the hardest of times can also bring forth the greatest of discoveries. Complacency, fear of new things and similar points of view, are by necessity assuaged. It is not the time to mock or ridicule new ideas being advanced as ludicrous; rather it is time to grasp those efforts, even if imperfect, and chip away and grow that the bright future hidden within, might be revealed. Keep up the great work, I personally admire and resect it, and try each day to learn. The best is just around the corner, besides, I never saw a U-Haul behind a hearse. Cheers-
Pretty informative article!
Although I definitely agree that the recession may be a great thing for horse racing, there is one thing which leaves me confused. If the stallions being bred dropped in half, and there is greater pressure than ever to recoup one’s investment, does that mean the books of sires who throw late maturing “throwback” horses- Theatrical, Petionville, Mizzen Mast- are decreasing in size and quality?
Keep up the good work. This blog is truly a great learning tool.
-Jameel
Jameel, I would say that at the top of the market sires that get classic type horses are well in demand, but at the middle and lower ends these types have fallen on harder times. (Sid Fernando)