By Jack Werk
Blind Luck’s devastating win in the G1 Hollywood Starlet on closing day Sunday means the race for champion 2-year-old filly of the year comes down to her, G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies winner She Be Wild and G1 Spinaway Stakes winner Hot Dixie Chick. I don’t envy the voters on this one because they are all superb fillies, in my book, and pretty closely matched. But, if I had a gun to my head to make me choose, this is how I would analyze it with a look at the sires, too.
Blind Luck (Pollard’s Vision – Lucky One, by Best of Luck): Her first-crop sire is a son of Carson City and only stood for $5,000 in 2009, although he won the G2 Illinois Derby and the G3 Lone Star Derby and was G1-placed at 4 and earned $1,430,311 with 6 wins from 23 starts. Blind Luck has won 4 of 6 starts with a 2nd and a 3rd in G1 races, and she has earned $709,050. She is the ONLY multiple G1 winner of the three and has had the toughest campaign, racing in 4 G1s. (Click here to view Blink Luck’s 5-cross pedigree & Werk Nick Rating)
She Be Wild (Offlee Wild – Trappings, by Seeking the Gold): Her first-crop sire, a son of Wild Again, stood for $7,500 this year. A G3 winner at 3, a G2 winner at 4 and a G1 winner at 5, he earned $976,325 with a record of 6 for 19. She Be Wild won the big race of the season, the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, with Blind Luck in 3rd. Hot Dixie Chick did not contest the race. She Be Wild has a record of 4 wins from 5 starts, a 2nd, and earnings of $1,311,040. Blind Luck’s win in the G1 Starlet flatters her, that’s for sure. (Click here to view She Be Wild’s 5-cross pedigree and Werk Nick Rating)
Hot Dixie Chick (Dixie Union – Above Perfection, by In Excess): Proven son of Dixieland Band is full for 2010 at a $35,000 fee. Probably the best racehorse of the three sires, he won 7 of 12 starts and earned $1,233,190. He was a multiple Graded SW at 2 and won two G1s at 3. Hot Dixie Chick has won 3 of 4 starts, with a 2nd, and she has earned $285685 – the lowest earner. Her G1 win came in the 7f Spinaway at Saratoga.
When you look at the facts, it’s obvious that the race is between Blind Luck, with 2 G1s, and She Be Wild, who beat her in the BC. They all have great records, but Hot Dixie Chick has only won at sprint distances and didn’t contest the big dance. Plus, Hot Dixie Chick’s earnings are paltry compared to the other two, who have raced more than once at the G1 level. (Click here to view Hot Dixie Chick’s 5-cross pedigree and Werk Nick Rating)
On form, look at the filly Beautician, who was 2nd to Hot Dixie Chick in the G1 Spinaway. In her two starts after that, she was beaten twice by She Be Wild – in the G1 Alcibiades (5th to She Be Wild in 2nd) and the BC. Bickersons, who was 3rd in the G1 Spinaway, was then beaten by Blind Luck in the G1 Oak Leaf (Blind Luck 1st, Bickersons 3rd) and then badly beaten behind She Be Wild, Beautician, and Blind Luck in the G1 BC (where she was 10th). Both Bickersons and Beautician (eased) were beaten again by Blind Luck in the Starlet.
And the envelope please . . . and the winner and champion is . . . She Be Wild! She won the BC defeating Blind Luck, and Blind Luck’s G1 Starlet only confirms the BC result!
Click here to view chart of BC Juvenile Fillies.