Lookin at Roses!

By Jack Werk

I had a sense of “déjà vu” Saturday while watching the Grade 1 Cashcall Futurity at Hollywood Park, and here’s the reason why. Twelve years ago, in 1997, Bob Baffert won the same race with Real Quiet in the same silks of Mike Pegram, with the same blue shadow roll! The next year, Real Quiet won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness and missed the Triple Crown by a whisker! I was closely associated with Real Quiet because we at WTC Inc. had recommended Quiet American for the late Eduardo Gaviria’s mare Really Blue, and the Grade 1 Hollywood Futurity, as the race was then called, was Real Quiet’s first stakes win and the start of his Derby campaign.

Real Quiet’ s 1998 Kentucky Derby

As with Real Quiet, I had a hand in the mating that produced Lookin at Lucky, too. You see, one of WTC Inc.’s valued clients is Gulf Coast Farms LLC, then the owner of the mare Private Feeling and the dam of Lookin at Lucky – now without a doubt the 2009 champion 2-year-old colt and 2010 Kentucky Derby future book favorite. Gulf Coast Farms LLC is the breeding operation of Lance Robinson and Jerry Bailey, and every year we make recommendations for the Gulf Coast mares. For the most part, they go with one of our recommendations, but not always. For example, Kensei, the 2006 colt (3-year-old) out of Private Feeling who’s a multiple Grade 2 winner of $553,628, is by Mr. Greeley, whom we did not recommend. However, in late 2005 we recommended that Lance and Jerry breed Private Feeling to Smart Strike in 2006, and that resulting foal was none other than Lookin at Lucky!

Our top three picks for Private Feeling in 2006 were 1) Smart Strike 2) Pulpit and 3) Speightstown. All three are excellent sires, although Speightstown didn’t have runners back in 2006 but was chosen because we thought he had a good chance to make it, and he has certainly had a good run with his oldest foals only 3 this year.

Smart Strike and Pulpit were proven horses, and we liked Smart Strike the best because of the powerful Mr. Prospector/Danzig cross and our long-term projections that Smart Strike would become a particularly strong cross with Belong to Me mares. At the time, Belong to Me was just beginning his career as a broodmare sire but did have 2 SWs from the Mr. Prospector line: Doctor Voodoo, by Petionville; and Last Best Place, by Gone West.

Well, our projections have been validated in 2009 as Smart Strike has had 3 SWs out of Belong to Me mares this year: (G1 winner Lookin on Lucky, G2 winner Papa Clem and unrestricted SW Striking Tomisue)! In fact, the Werk Nick Rating for the Smart Srike/Belong to Me now qualifies as a rare A+++ *Triple Plus* (click here to view pedigree and nick rating). Not surprising when you look at the stats for Smart Strike with Belong to Me mares: 5 foals, 4 winners, 3 SWs!

As of today, there are 11 unrestricted SWs out of Belong to Me mares, and 9 of them are by Mr. Prospector-line sires. Six of the 11 are graded winners, including G1 winner Circular Quay (by Thunder Gulch)!

Recently, Private Feeling was sold at the 2009 Fasig-Tipton Kentucky November sale for $2,000,000 to Live Oak Stud, in foal to Mr. Greeley. This was a grand slam homerun for Lance and Jerry, who had purchased this mare at the 2004 Keeneland November sale, in foal to Grand Slam, for $130,000!

Taylor Made Sales sold the mare, and they asked me to write up some notes for a pre-sale brochure. Here’s what I wrote:

“When I recommended Smart Strike for Private Feeling in October, 2005, I thought it would be an excellent match, but pedigree analysis becomes a moot point when a producer of her quality comes on.

“There were a couple of things I particularly liked about Private Feeling at the time. She is by Belong to Me, a stallion I believe will become an important broodmare sire because of his pedigree – he is by Danzig and out of a mare descending from a powerful branch of the legendary La Troienne family. The other thing I liked about her is that her bottom line had been fairly prolific at producing black-type with Sleek Dancer providing a strong foundation as her third dam.

“But pedigree only goes so far. At this point, her produce record speaks for itself. From 2 foals to race, she has produced 3-year-old multiple graded winner Kensei, and juvenile multiple G1 winner Lookin at Lucky, the probable favorite for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

“Based on her pedigree and extraordinary produce record to date, I believe Private Feeling has the potential to become a foundation mare for any breeding operation anywhere in the world. Her offspring should be suitable on any surface. After all, Kensei is a G2 winner on dirt and Lookin at Lucky a G1 winner on synthetic surface. Furthermore, 31 of Belong to Me’s 47 unrestricted stakes winners have won stakes on turf.

“Quite simply, Private Feeling is, in my opinion, the best broodmare or broodmare prospect offered at sale in November.”