Archive for May, 2009
Saturday, May 30th, 2009
My father always told me that “timing is everything.” This certainly holds true for my blog of five days ago: Dynaformer – The Underrated Overchiever! Today at Belmont Park, the winner of the G2 Sands Point Stakes for 3yo fillies was Dynaformer’s Gozzip Girl (Click here to view pedigree). Finishing 2nd was Dynaformer’s Warm Shower (Click here to view pedigree). If that wasn’t enough, the 3rd-place finisher was Dynaformer’s Bluegrass Princess (Click here to view pedigree). That’s right, daughters of Dynaformer finished 1-2-3 in the eight horse field!
(Click here to view TDN’s Stakes results for this race)
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Tuesday, May 26th, 2009
One of my favorite stallions since he retired to stud in 1990 is the “old man” at Three Chimneys in Midway, Ky., Dynaformer, now 24. He stands for $150,000 live foal because he’s a consistent sire of quality SWs who appeals to breeders in North America and Europe. Often underrated over the years, the old man has been on fire recently: Between May 16 and May 23, he had 4 SWs, 2 in Europe and 2 in the US! And right now, he’s second only to Giant’s Causeway as leading US sire of FTSWs (first-time stakes winners) in 2009 with 5!
Dynaformer
As a son of Epsom Derby winner Roberto out of G1 winner Andover Way, by His Majesty (sire of Derby winner Pleasant Colony), Dynaformer was born in 1985 and had a “classic” Darby Dan pedigree of a different era that placed a huge emphasis on class and stamina. The same 1985 crop also had the Roberto colt Brian’s Time, who had a very similar Darby Dan pedigree to Dynaformer. Brian’s Time was out of the Graustark (a full brother to His Majesty) mare Kelley’s Day, who was out of the mare Golden Trail. Dynaformer’s dam Andover Way is out of the mare On the Trail, daughter of Golden Trail! (Click here to see the pedigrees of both stallions).
Brian’s Time was the better racehorse of the two. He won the G1 Florida Derby and G1 Pegasus Handicap, and he was 2nd in the Preakness, and 3rd in the Belmont Stakes and Travers. He earned $1,001,269 and was sold as a stallion prospect to Japan, where he was a huge success and second in stature for years only to Sunday Silence! (The best racing in Japan is on turf, and it’s interesting to ponder that Brian’s Time and Sunday Silence were both Hail to Reason-line stallions who really took to the classic races in Japan.)
Dynaformer was the G2 version of Brian’s Time. He won the G2 Jersey Derby (a $500,000 race!) at a mile and a quarter and the G2 Discovery Handicap at 1 1/8 miles. He earned $671,207, but when he went to stud he didn’t get the kind of reception here that Brian’s Time got in Japan! Brian’s Time was bred to some of the best mares in Japan as soon as he went to stud. Dynaformer had to do it the hard way! That’s right! You may not remember this, but Dynaformer went to stud at Nathan Fox’s Wafare Farm for a fee of only $2,500 live foal. Talk about starting on the ground floor and working your way up!
The Roberto line was a favorite of mine, even back then, and I particularly liked Dynaformer before he was a big name. Once, at my suggestion, I even took a season from Nathan to Dynaformer in lieu of payment for pedigree work – that’s how much I liked him! And I sold the season to my friend and client Joe Friedberg with a huge recommendation.
Over the years I’ve had great satisfaction in seeing Dynaformer succeed, and I’ve come to appreciate the fact that he’s done well here in spite of his progeny’s preference for turf and distance racing! As a son of Roberto with his ability, he might have been even bigger in Europe, where the turf and the distances would suit him much more than in the US. Consider these stats: Of his 80 unrestricted SWs to date, 64 of them have won a stakes on the turf; and the average winning distance of his SWs is 8.9 furlongs!
Take a look at his 4 most recent SWs:
Vacation won the G3 Hanshin Cup on May 23 at Arlington (synthetic) at 1 mile. (Click here to view pedigree)
Alwaary won a Listed Stakes on May 20 at Goodwood in England at 11 furlongs on turf. (Click here to view pedigree)
Americain won the G2 Prix Vicomtesse Vigier on May 17 at Longchamp in France at 15½ furlongs on turf. (Click here to view pedigree)
Social Queen won the G3 Gallorette Handicap on May 16 at Pimlico at 1 1/16 miles on turf. (Click here to view pedigree)
In fact, if you go back and examine the records of his best runners over the last few years, you’ll note that owners have become well aware of his sire abilities for turf and distance, and they are taking greater care to place them in those types of races.
Just in the month of May, in addition to the above accomplishments, Dynaformer has had: Nicanor win a Delaware maiden on turf by 15 lengths (Nicanor is the full brother to Kentucky Derby winner Barbaro, who came to the Derby off wins on turf!); More Fascination win a 3¼-mile turf allowance on soft ground in the US; Rare Bush win a 2-mile steeplechase stakes in the US. And last month some sons and daughters of his won maiden and allowance races at Colonial Downs at 2 1/4miles and races in Europe at more than 1¼ miles!
To date, Dynaformer is the sire of 14 G1 winners and 93 SWs overall, and lately the best of them are coming from Europe. This year he actually had a heavy 1000 Guineas favorite in Rainbow View, who last year was a G1 winner in Europe. In fact, if you can recall it, last year Dynaformer got three G1-winning fillies in the span of a few weeks. Rainbow View at 2 won the G1 Meon Valley Stud Fillies’ Mile at Ascot on Sept. 27, the same day that Dynaforce won the 1¼-mile G1 Flower Bowl on turf at Belmont. Two weeks earlier, on Sept. 14 at Longchamp, Michita had won the 1½-mile G1 Qatar Prix Vermeille!
Not bad for a horse who entered stud for $2,500 at a small farm in Kentucky!
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Monday, May 18th, 2009
On Sunday, the 2-year-old filly Wildcat Aly, a daughter of Wildcat Heir, won a $62,600 Maiden Special at Woodbine to become her first-crop sire’s fifth winner of the young season! At WTC Inc., we spend a lot of time tracking young stallions, and to have five individual winners by mid-May is an obvious indication that a stallion is siring precocious stock and needs to be followed closely.
Wildcat Heir
Wildcat Heir stands for $6,500 at Brent and Crystal Fernung’s Journeyman Stud in Florida and has all the credentials to do what he’s done so far. He’s by the Storm Cat speed influence Forest Wildcat, who as a racehorse won 2 of 5 starts at 2 but actually didn’t get good until age 5, when he won two G3 races – the Maryland Breeders’ Cup Handicap where he equaled Pimlico’s six-furlong track record of 1:09, and the Finger Lakes Breeders’ Cup Stakes. Forest Wildcat began his career for $10,000 at Brookdale Farm in Kentucky and went on to sire 55 stakes winners before his death last year. One of his sons, the French sprint G1 winner Var (click here to view his pedigree), is now at stud at Avontuur Estate in South Africa. Var is off to a sensational start at stud, too, with 12 individual winners from his first crop (Southern Hemisphere-bred) and two stakes winners. Wildcat Heir, so far, appears to be following the same path as Var!
Wildcat Heir (click here to view his pedigree) has speed and precocity on the bottom side of his pedigree, too. His dam, Penniless Heiress, is by the fast Pentelicus, a son of Fappiano. She produced three stakes winners, all by Forest Wildcat. All were winners at 2, and one of them won Graded races as a juvenile. Forest Heiress won 4 of 5 at 2, including the G3 Sorority Stakes and G3 Valley Stream Stakes.
Wildcat Heir was second in the G2 Sanford Stakes at 2, and like his sire didn’t get good until he was older. At 4, Wildcat Heir won the G1 Frank J. De Francis Memorial Dash. He retired with a record of 6 wins from 12 starts.
Like his sire, and like Var, Wildcat Heir was pure speed, and he’s living up to his pedigree and racing class. He got his first winner, the filly Kitty in the Bag, on April 1 at Santa Anita in a 2-furlong Maiden Special, and he followed up with his second winner April 3 at Gulfstream Park when the colt Convoy Ahead won a 2½-furlong Maiden Special. Then on May 2 the filly Wildcat Honor won a 2-furlong Maiden Special at Calder, which was followed by the filly Richiegirlgonewild in an about 2-furlong Maiden Special at Arlington. Wildcat Aly’s win on Sunday at Woodbine came at 4½ furlongs. (Click here to view the pedigrees of Wildcat Heir’s 5 winners)
Three of Wildcat Heir’s runners won on synthetic surfaces, which is a promising sign because of the opportunities for them down the road. How far they will stay is yet to be determined, but so far, so good!
Oh, and one more thing. How important is the G1 De Francis Memorial Dash as an indicator of future stallion potential? Just look at some of the previous winners – Cherokee Run, Yes It’s True, Montbrook and Smoke Glacken!
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Friday, May 15th, 2009
The big question on the eve of the Preakness is: How hot is Medaglia d’Oro, sire of Preakness favorite Rachel Alexandra (according to Daily Racing Form, she was the 3-2 betting favorite as of 6:00 pm in pre-race betting!)?
The answer is: RED HOT!!
Today, Payton d’Oro, a daughter of Medaglia d’Oro, won the G2 Black-Eyed Susan Stakes at Pimlico! The 3-year-old filly led wire-to-wire-to win the filly counterpart to the Preakness by a length and a quarter. The field included another daughter of Medaglia d’Oro, too! Renda, a previous stakes winner, was the result of our mating recommendation. With Payton d’Oro’s win, Medaglia d’Oro now is the sire of 7 first-crop SWs – and ALL are fillies! Three of them are Graded SWs! This is truly amazing.
If you’ve been reading this space, you know I did a post on Medaglia d’Oro in April (Medaglia d’Oro’s fast fillies) when we discussed his record for siring fillies. You can read it by clicking here.
Medaglia d’Oro, who stands at Stonewall Farm, was heavily recommended by WTC Inc. when he first went to stud. As a son of the Sadler’s Wells stallion El Prado, he figured to suit a lot of the Mr. Prospector-line mares in production today. Well, Rachel Alexandra is out of a Roar mare (Roar is by Forty Niner, by Mr. Prospector), and another one of his SWs, She’s Our Annie, also is out of a Roar mare. I can guarantee you that he wasn’t bred to many Roar mares, so this is an interesting development. Payton d’Oro is out of a Jade Hunter mare (Jade Hunter is by Mr. Prospector), so 3 of his 7 SWs are out of Mr. Prospector-line mares.
What is truly remarkable about Medaglia d’Oro is that not only is he siring SWs at a great clip, he’s also getting very high-class runners, and in Rachel Alexandra he may have “one for the ages.” She won the G1 Kentucky Oaks by 20 lengths, and just the fact that she’s the favorite in the Preakness speaks eons about her. Remember all the hype about the colts before the Derby? This was universally called one of the best crops of 3-year-olds in a while. Well, it may turn out that the best of the crop was actually a filly.
Rachel Alexandra will not have an easy time of it in the Preakness. She has to break from a very unfavorable post, and her running style – like Payton d’Oro’s in the Black-Eyed Susan – is to set the pace. So in the Preakness she’ll have to be used hard early, and the sharp turns at Pimlico may give her problems. Then, there’s the matter of the competition. Pioneer of the Nile, Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bid, Kentucky Derby favorite Friesan Fire, and the very good colt Musket Man will test her like she’s never been in the past.
BUT, if she were to win the Preakness, there can be no doubt where she stands. The last two fillies to win the Derby – Winning Colors and Genuine Risk – couldn’t win this race, to put it in perspective. And a Preakness victory by Rachel Alexandra would propel Medaglia d’Oro into the stratosphere as one of the best young stallions in the world. I, for one, would like nothing better than to see that happen tomorrow! Go Rachel Go!
(Click here to view the pedigrees of Payton d’Oro and Rachel Alexandra)
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Wednesday, May 13th, 2009
I don’t know if you’ve ever heard of the brilliant baseball statistician Bill James – I never had until Sunday, when I saw him profiled on the TV program 60 Minutes (click here to see a clip!) However, many baseball people “in the know” know Bill James, because he revolutionized some of the stats used in baseball that we now take for granted, like OBP (on-base percentage). James, who for years was a night watchman in a pork and beans factory in Kansas (no joke!) before he became a special assistant to the Boston Red Sox, has come up with a bunch of stats for looking at baseball players and examining their worth that MLB general managers now take for granted when analyzing players. But it took the traditional hierarchy in baseball years to acknowledge James, and even to this day he is not universally embraced by baseball’s power structure. (Two of the thoroughbred industry’s more statistically minded pedigree advisors, Roger Lyons and Bill Oppenheim, are also from Kansas. Maybe it’s something in the water!)
Let’s look at on-base percentage. The OBP, which James said should be one of the key factors in analyzing a player, is now widely used for evaluating “the talent,” whereas in the “old days” only batting average was the stat used to determine how good a player was. James argued that how many times a player gets on base (hits, walks, hit by pitches) is actually more important than a player’s batting average alone because a player could have a .320 batting average – great in baseball – and a .340 OBP – while another player could have a .400 OBP while his batting average is .280! He, quite rightly, argues that getting on base is more important than how you get on base!
Here at Werk Thoroughbred Consultants, Inc., we, like James, have come up with some stats over the years for evaluating stallions that we feel are better indicators of a stallion’s worth than the standard industry stats. When ranking stallions by stakes production, for example, we recognize unrestricted stakes only. Including restricted stakes, as is generally done, can be misleading. It doesn’t make a lot of sense to rank the G1 Kentucky Derby along with a minor stakes at Arapahoe Park or a sales stakes (restricted to horses that are entered in a particular auction). Our stats try to filter for quality, so they are more meaningful.
Another stat that we pioneered is listing leading sires by “First-Time Unrestricted Stakes Winners.” This stat allows breeders to monitor the number of new quality stakes winners a stallion is coming up with each year, instead of looking at a total number of stakes winners in a given year.
Similarly, we also provide lists by leading sires and broodmare sire of G1 winners, again a simple concept that easily allows you to filter the stallions siring winners at the highest levels.
The same way of thinking is behind the Werk Nick Rating, which is calculated by only using unrestricted stakes winners.
Watching the Bill James episode on 60 Minutes made me realize the parallels between the innovations he introduced to baseball and the way innovation takes place in the thoroughbred industry. New concepts often come from an individual or small enterprise. When a new concept has real benefit, it will be embraced by the marketplace and eventually become mainstream. This holds true for the Red Sox, who now have World Series in the bank, thanks in part to James’ innovations. And I’m pleased to say the same about some of the innovations we have introduced at WTC over the past 25 years, which have benefited breeders at all levels.
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Wednesday, May 6th, 2009
Just recently I wrote a post on the Green Desert sire line in Europe (“One of the biggest sire-line developments of recent times is the growing influence of sons of Green Desert”), and the point was driven home Saturday in the “other” major classic of the day, the G1 2000 Guineas in England. As everyone knows by now, the winner was Sea the Stars, a son of Green Desert’s best son Cape Cross out of the fabulous producer (and G1 Arc winner) Urban Sea. (Click here to view the pedigree)
There’s been some great articles written on this family since the Guineas (the best, in my opinion, is Victor Sheahan’s “Who said it’s difficult to breed a classic winner” on the Montjeu.com blog), so I’m not going to rehash what’s already in print. But reading Victor’s article and examining the produce record of Urban Sea that he provided made me realize some astounding facts: Urban Sea’s first seven foals were produced by 12-furlong type horses, including four by Sadler’s Wells, the best source of classic stamina in Europe since he went to stud. In contrast, her last four live foals were produced by the sprint/miler line of Green Desert (2), Cape Cross, and Invincible Spirit – another son of Green Desert that I had highlighted in my blog piece (click here to read it)!
So, Urban Sea went from the best of the 12-furlong line, Sadler’s Wells, to the best of the 8 furlongs and less-line of Green Desert, after having produced a great Epsom Derby winner and outstanding stallion in Galileo (click here to view pedigree) and another G1 winner in Black Sam Bellamy. Urban Sea did not skip a beat, although the classic distance of her newest star predictably shortened (although he’s expected to go after the Epsom Derby, too!).
Sea the Star’s classic win at a mile in the Guineas – now the fourth G1 winner for Urban Sea – is a great compliment to everyone involved, from the sire to the dam to the breeder – Christopher Tsui – and to a couple of people in the background.
One of them is the Irish National Stud’s director, John Clarke, who offered guidance to the breeder’s family. Urban Sea, who was raced by Tsui, was boarded at the National Stud and died on March 2 this year after foaling the Invincible Spirit colt. The victory of Sea the Stars, John said, was “tempered by knowing that Urban Sea will never have another foal,” but John should be commended for taking a bold path away from the Sadler’s Wells line and striking gold with Cape Cross. John gives the credit to Christopher Tsui’s mother, Ling Tsui, and explained the decision.
He said: “The mating of Urban Sea was usually done easily as she was one of those mares who seemed to suit a wide variety of stallions. I always prepared a short list of stallions which I sent on to Ling Tsui, mother of Christopher Tsui; we would then discuss the choices and she would make the final decision.
“Cape Cross was picked as he had Ouija Board and other major winners when he could never have been expected to do so well off a €10,000 fee. In addition he had the advantage of being close to the Irish National Stud and is a very good-looking horse. All in all it was an easy decision as he was clearly upgrading his mares.
“The relationship I have with the Tsui family is one of deep respect and friendship and I would talk with Ling Tsui at least weekly. Obviously with such a happy outcome to our plans we have talked on many occasions since Saturday.”
It’s fortunate that The Irish National Stud also stands Invincible Spirit, because the Tsuis now have a foal that is closely related to the Guineas winner.
“The decision to use Invincible Spirit was made for much the same reasons and came on the back of a truly great year he had in 2007. We had already made the decision, after Sea the Stars looked so promising, to send her back to Cape Cross in 2009 but sadly she died after her foaling,” John said.
This classic story is far from over, because as John pointed out, Cape Cross’s Ouija Board did win the 12-furlong Oaks, so it’s possible that Sea the Stars may have a good chance in the Epsom Derby as well. And as far Invincible Spirit goes, he too has a Derby winner – his Lawman won the French classic at 10-plus furlongs.
(Footnote: Here’s the information that’s missing in Victor Sheahan’s chart of Urban Sea’s foals: She was barren in 2007 to Shamardal, had a dead foal by Pivotal in 2008, and had the Invincible Spirit in 2009.)
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Friday, May 1st, 2009
The Kentucky Derby is the race every breeder and owner wants to win. For breeders, who start the process of creating future racehorses, planning a mating for their mare is an involved process that takes into account a number of factors, including the pedigree, race record, conformation, dosage, inbreeding, etc., of both the mare and potential stallion involved. In my opinion, it is the single greatest puzzle to solve in this business, and it’s one of the reasons why I have the greatest respect in the world for breeders. They are the people who drive the sport of horse racing, and it’s basically their “opinions” on breeding that create the stars of the sport.
At Werk Thoroughbred Consultants, Inc., we offer a number of services to aid breeders, including detailed broodmare analysis reports, but I’m most proud of the services that we have made available to breeders that are free or relatively inexpensive, like eNicks and the pedigree software CompuSire, which I own in partnership with its developer Roger Lyons.
These tools, I’ve found, have enabled breeders to do much of the work that previously they would have had to pay experts significant money to research.
I’m ecstatic that these tools also have helped two breeders come up with two Kentucky Derby starters this year – Derby favorite I Want Revenge and G1 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes winner General Quarters.
Mr. and Mrs. David Randal bred General Quarters (Sky Mesa – Ecology, by Unbridled’s Song) and Mr. David Lanzman bred I Want Revenge (Stephen Got Even – Meguial (Arg), by Roy). You will note that both colts are bred along similar lines: A.P. Indy-line stallions over Fappiano-line mares.
The Randals, who reside in California but own Fallbrook Farm in Versailles, Ky., used CompuSire as a tool to aid them in the mating of General Quarters. Mr. Randal recently told Daily Racing Form:
“I also ran a CompuSire report on the [in utero] foal and looked at the Dosage Index on the foal to see if it fits my criteria, which it did,” Randal said. “I try to keep the Dosage Index below 3 and above 2, for a foal that has speed but will also go the distance and won’t be just a straight sprinter.”
Mr. Lanzman told the Blood-Horse in March:
“I’m not in the breeding business; this was my first broodmare. I spent hours on eNicks looking for a mating, and Stephen Got Even is who came up on the screen with the most quality points.”
I am proud that eNicks and CompuSire provided tools for the Randals and Mr. Lanzman to plan the matings of General Quarters and I Want Revenge, and I give both breeders all the credit for actually coming up with what I believe will be a monster nick of the future: A.P Indy/Fappiano, a refinement of A.P. Indy/Mr. Prospector. In the specific case of I Want Revenge, he is so far the second G1 winner on the A.P. Indy/Roy cross, following Great Hunter (Aptitude – Zenith, by Roy). In the case of General Quarters, which is A.P. Indy/Unbridled’s Song, note that Dunkirk’s pedigree is the reverse cross: by Unbridled’s Song out of an A.P. Indy mare!
Great minds, as they say, do think alike!
Best of luck in the Derby to these two fine colts.
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Jack Werk (1944-2010)
