Horse running through field

My Favorite Matches–Keesep10 Day 1

by Roger Lyons

This post consists of some observations about hip numbers 20, 41, 52, 61, 76, and 90, which were offered on Day 1. My purpose is to highlight some pedigree matches that appear, from a certain statistical perspective, to be exceptionally well made, and I do this after they’ve gone through the ring, so as to render the exercise somewhat more academic than it could otherwise be.

The approach is based on the idea that a given stallion’s “strike rate” with mares that have a given ancestor provides an indication of the stallion’s relation to that ancestor in terms of performance. For example, the stallion Dynaformer has foals out of 45 individual mares with Seattle Slew occurring anywhere in their ancestries, and seven of those mares produced superior runners (winner of an unrestricted stakes, winner of a blacktype-qualifying foreign stakes, or a runner that finishes second in a G1 or G2 race). So, 7/45 is Dynaformer’s strike rate with mares that descend in some way from Seattle Slew.

Dynaformer has high strike rates with some ancestors, such as Seattle Slew, but with other ancestors he has low or average strike rates. Imagine, then, the evaluative potential of the strike rates for all ancestors represented in the six-generation ancestries of all the dams of Dynaformer’s foals, aged three and up. Any given mare could be comprehensively assessed as a potential mate for Dynaformer, based on his strike rates with her individual ancestors.

That is, in fact, the approach used below. Based on the sire’s strike rates with the individual six-generation ancestors of the dam, she occupies a percentile rank relative to other mares that have produced foals by the stallion, but the real value of having the data is that it enables pedigree interpretation and inference that is more comprehensively grounded in pertinent facts than is otherwise possible.

Hip 20 (A.P. Indy-Byzantine, by Quiet American): Byzantine’s ancestry scores at the 94th percentile of mares that have produced foals by A.P. Indy. Out of mares by Quiet American, A.P. Indy has sired Bernardini (multiple-G1) and A. P. Warrior (multiple-G2). Only one Quiet American mare that has produced a foal by A.P. Indy through his 2007 crop was unable to come up with a major stakes winner.

The strike rate of 2/3 with Quiet American didn’t come from out of the blue. A.P. Indy has extremely good numbers with both Fappiano (6/33) and Dr. Fager (10/53), sire and broodmare sire, respectively, of Quiet American, and he’s 6/40 with Quiet American’s third dam, Cequillo. Often, how well or poorly a stallion will do with mares by a given sire is indicated by the stallion’s record with the background ancestry. When a stallion has had no opportunity with an individual broodmare sire, I’m always especially cautious when he has a poor record on either side of the broodmare sire’s ancestry. That’s not the case here.

The yearling’s second dam is by Vice Regent, with which A.P. Indy has a strike rate of 11/43. Now, that’s mostly through Deputy Minister. In fact, A.P. Indy has a strike rate of 1/11 through female strains of Vice Regent, as in this case, but that is the only soft spot in Byzantine’s ancestry. A.P. Indy has a strike rate of 4/20 with Vaguely Noble, sire of the third dam, and a strike rate of 2/10 with Amerigo, sire of the fourth dam.

Hip 41 (Unbridled’s Song-Future Guest, by Copelan): Future Guest’s ancestry scores at the 96th percentile of mares that have produced foals by Unbridled’s Song. Rockport Harbor (G2) is one of two superior runners Unbridled’s Song has from opportunity with only three mares by Copelan (he’s had two other mares whose dams are by Copelan, for a total of five mares).

When it comes to Roberto, sire of Future Guest’s dam, the case becomes more nuanced. He has a record of 2/36 overall with mares that have Roberto in their ancestries. However, he’s had only nine mares that had Roberto through female strains, and only seven with Roberto in this pedigree position. One of those seven was Fleet Lady, by Avenue of Flags, and out of Dear Mimi, by Roberto. Fleet Lady is the dam of dual-G1 winner, Midshipman, by Unbridled’s Song.

With Sailor, sire of the third dam, Unbridled’s Song is 3/17, and with Swaps he’s 10/107. When Unbridled’s Song’s weakest strike rate in the ancestry of a mare is 10%, then he’s going to have a pretty good profile.

Hip 52 (Dynaformer-Juke, by Mr. Prospector): Even if you disregard Haka, the G3 winner on the catalogue page, the profile of this yearling’s ancestry is impressive. As it is, Juke’s ancestry ranks at the 96th percentile of mares that have produced foals by Dynaformer.

With Mr. Prospector overall, Dynaformer has a strike rate of 27/209–not bad, but misleading because, with female strains of Mr. Prospector, as in this case, his record is somewhat better, at 8/56. It’s of some concern that the quantity is a bit more impressive than the quality, but, then, that is the weakest part of the dam’s ancestry, with respect to Dynaformer. With Seattle Slew, sire of the second dam, Dynaformer has a strike rate of 7/45, and his strike rate with Seattle Slew in this position of the dams’ ancestry is 3/8.

With Riva Ridge, sire of the third dam, Dynaformer has a strike rate of 4/7, and in this pedigree position the strike rate is 3/4. And, by the way, the fourth dam, Exclusive Dancer, shows up through her son General Assembly in the ancestry of another mare that produced a stakes winner by Dynaformer.

Hip 61 (Smart Strike-Lassie’s Legacy, by Deputy Minister): Lassie’s Legacy ranks at the 85th percentile of mares that have produced foals by Smart Strike. That’s not as high as other cases listed here, but, like those other cases, the dam’s ancestry is free of ancestors that have been unfavorable to Smart Strike.

With Deputy Minister, Smart Strike has an overall strike rate of 5/42, but that may be deceptive because through female strains, as in this case, the strike rate is 4/29, and when Deputy Minister is the damsire, as in this case, the strike rate is 4/25, including Curlin and multiple graded stakes winner, Tenpins. Quality matters.

With Weekend Surprise, Smart Strike is 2/16 overall and 1/1 as the second dam, as in this case.

Hip 76 (Unbridled’s Song-My Friend C. Z., by Seeking the Gold): My Friend C. Z. scores in the 98th percentile of mares that produced foals by Unbridled’s Song, partly because Unbridled’s Song has a strike rate of 2/6 with mares that have Seeking the Gold in their ancestries and a strike rate of 2/3 with Carols Folly, the third dam, including G1 winners Unbridled Elaine and Political Force. In this case, the catalogue page almost says it all, except for highlighting the very small opportunity from which such good quality was produced.

Hip 90 (Street Cry-Shopping, by Private Account): As a general rule, the younger the sire, the less definitive the statistical profiles. What that means is that, for a young stallion like Street Cry, a profile can score in the 92nd percentile, as in this case, and still have an area of uncertainty.

While Street Cry has a strike rate of 2/6 with Private Account, he remains 0/7 with Majestic Prince, sire of the second dam. But one must keep one’s eye on the ball. Ultimately, the question in view must always be to what extent the ancestry as a whole supports the dam herself. Clearly, Private Account is in Street Cry’s camp, and, when the numbers in the background of the second dam are taken into account, the conclusion must be that a strike rate of 0/7 with Majestic Prince at this stage in Street Cry’s career doesn’t matter. It just hasn’t happened yet.

After all, Street Cry is 8/78 with Majestic Prince’s sire, Raise a Native, 4/34 with Better Self, sire of the third dam, Lady Be Good (which, by the way, shows up in the pedigree of Street Cry G1 winner Cry and Catch Me), and 6/57 with Eight Thirty, sire of the fourth dam. For such a young stallion, this is a very good profile.

Pedigree Profile: Lookin at Lucky

by Roger Lyons

Lookin at Lucky (Smart Strike–Private Feeling, by Belong to Me) is out of a mare whose genealogical profile as a mate for Smart Strike currently ranks her at the 96th percentile among mares that have produced foals by him through his 2006 crop. This percentile rank is based on an aggregation of Smart Strike’s rate of production of superior runners from mares representing individual ancestors of the subject mare–in this case, Private Feeling. Basically, the purpose of the profile is to measure how well the ancestry of the subject mare matches up with Smart Strike based on the preferences he has shown. If a given ancestor has proven significantly favorable to Smart Strike relative to opportunity, it contributes positively to the aggregate profile and percentile rank. An ancestor that has proven significantly unfavorable negatively affects the profile and percentile rank.

No knowledgeable observer would be surprised that a stallion by Mr. Prospector would have a relatively low strike rate with mares contributing Raise a Native. The redeeming factor for Smart Strike is that his strike rate with mares contributing Northern Dancer has generally been slightly above average. It happens , though, that Smart Strike has an exceptionally favorable response to Private Feeling’s specific expression of these two important ancestors.

Her sire, Belong to Me, is bred from a Danzig (Northern Dancer)–Exclusive Native (Raise a Native) sire-line cross. Through his 2006 crop Smart Strike has sired foals out of four mares by Belong to Me, and two of those mares produced superior runners by him, including Papa Clem, winner of the Arkansas Derby (G2) and San Fernando S. (G2), and Striking Tomisue, winner of the Wayward Lass S. Lookin at Lucky’s dam is Smart Strike’s third mate by Belong to Me to produce a superior runner by him. In short, it’s a nick.

When Werk Thoroughbred Consultants first recommended this mating, however, the Smart Strike–Belong to Me nick was not yet established. Get that story here.

As is typical of a broodmare sire that crosses well with a particular stallion, Smart Strike’s numbers with ancestors in the background of Belong to Me are very solid. Through male strains of Danzig, he has a strike rate of 6/45 through 2006 and has three additional superior runners from his 2007 crop, including Lookin at Lucky, of course; On Verra, runner up in last year’s Prix Marcel Boussac (G1); and Zanzibari, winner of last year’s Prix de Cabourg. Smart Strike’s overall record with Danzig, including female strains, is reflected in his strike rate of 11/76 with Pas de Nom, notable predominantly as the dam of Danzig. He is 9/79 with Hail to Reason, sire of Belong to Me’s second dam, through female strains and has a strike rate of 3/12 with No Fiddling, Belong to Me’s third dam.

Smart Strike’s record with the ancestry of Lookin at Lucky’s second dam, Regal Feeling (Clever Trick–Sharp Belle, by Native Charger) is not nearly as conclusive, mainly for lack of opportunity. He’s had opportunity with only seven mares with Clever Trick through female strains and no superior runners to show for it, other than Lookin at Lucky. However, the background numbers suggest potential, given more opportunity. With Clever Trick’s sire, Icecapade, he’s 2/20 and with Native Charger 1/6, which is good enough.

One peculiarity of Private Feeling’s ancestry is that she’s inbred to Northern Dancer 3×4 through a male strain (Danzig) and a female strain (Sleek Dancer, Private Feeling’s third dam). Some pedigree analysts regard inbreeding through sex-opposite strains as an absolute pedigree value, but the numbers show that many stallions respond differently to male and female strains of certain ancestors, including Northern Dancer. It happens that Smart Strike has the fairly good strike rate of 4/24 with female strains, but only an average 46/384 with male strains. Accordingly, with mares inbred to Northern Dancer through mixed-sex strains his strike rate is only 1/17, not counting Lookin at Lucky or any of the opportunity in his 2007 crop. For Smart Strike, sex-opposite strains of Northern Dancer generally collide with one another, but not in this case.

He has a strike rate of 6/46 with mares inbred to Northern Dancer through all-male strains, but that’s deceptive because in all six cases Danzig was one of the strains. So, on the whole, Private Feeling’s Northern Dancer influence can be deemed highly favorable to Smart Strike only because of Northern Dancer’s descent through Danzig and a female strain. It’s not because they’re sex-opposite strains. It’s because, despite his preference for female strains, he just happens to like Danzig especially well.

Another issue is that Private Feeling has five strains of Native Dancer within six generations, two through males (Raise a Native and Native Charger) and three through females (Natalma, the dam of Northern Dancer in two cases and Shenanigans, the dam of Icecapade in one case). As in the case of Northern Dancer, Smart Strike responds differently to Native Dancer depending on the sex of the strains. With female strains of Native Dancer he has the significantly favorable response of 47/359, and, remember, Private Feeling has three female strains. This makes sense in that Northern Dancer confers a female strain of Native Dancer while Raise a Native confers a male strain. Accordingly, with male strains Smart Strike has a strike rate of only 7/128. Of course, in Private Feeling’s case this response is conditioned by Native Dancer’s descent through male strains to which Smark Strike has proven amenable. So, overall, Private Feeling’s Native Dancer load leans very heavily in Smart Strike’s favor.

I should add, too, that the breeding of Belong to Me’s dam, Belonging, broadly reflects Smart Strike’s Raise a Native–Turn-to sire-line cross and, therefore, constitutes a linebreeding pattern. Smart Strike’s strike rate with mares that return to him that pattern, including all its possible forms, is 5/65, just a bit below his average, not bad at all. There can be no doubt that linebreeding can serve to mediate type, but, among superior runners, the numbers only very rarely warrant a pedigree interpretation that casts it as a decisive factor. At best, linebreeding has only limited functional relevance in Lookin at Lucky’s pedigree context.

The linebreeding of Lookin at Lucky is one thing, but the linebreeding of his dam, with her build-up of Native Dancer, is quite another. Much of that is favorable to Smart Strike, but mainly because of the specific ancestors through which it is expressed. In no way could a build-up of Native Dancer in the ancestry of a mare otherwise be taken as an encouraging factor for Smart Strike. It all depends on how that build-up is expressed, and Smart Strike is extremely particular about that. Private Feeling’s distinctive expression happens to suit Smart Strike especially well, but there are lots of ways it would go wrong for most other stallions.