Astrology Bred for the Preakness
by Roger Lyons
Bred from the same sire-line cross as Bernardini, Astrology (A.P. Indy-Quiet Eclipse, by Quiet American) makes his third start of the year in the Preakness S. (G1) on Saturday. He may not win, as Bernardini did in 2006, but he has the right breeding.
With daughters of Quiet American, A.P. Indy has a strike rate of 4/7, including Astrology (G3), Bernardini (multiple G1), and A. P. Warrior (dual-G2). The A.P. Indy-greater Fappiano cross has a strike rate of 5/18, including A. P. Adventure (G1), Teammate (dual-G2), and Admiral’s Cruise (G2). That’s more than enough quality to merit a Triple Plus (A+++) rating in the eNicks rating system.
Astrology doesn’t have the family Bernardini has, but his dam contributes some other assets besides a great nick. He’s the only stakes winner by A.P. Indy and out of a mare with Hold Your Peace in her ancestry (from seven mares), but A.P. Indy is 3/12 with Hold Your Peace’s sire, Speak John. His son Friends Lake (G1) is out of a mare by Spend a Buck, whose broodmare sire is Speak John, and there’s also his son Just as Well (G3), whose third dam is by Verbatim, a son of Speak John.
Furthermore, A.P. Indy is 3/13 with mares contributing Round Table through his son Illustrious, which is the sire of Astrology’s third dam. Two other SWs by A.P. Indy are out of mares that have Illustrious descending through their female lines, as Astrology does, including Boca Grande (dual-G2), and from that pattern of descent A.P. Indy has a superior-runner strike rate of 3/5.
It just so happens that the moon enters Aquarius at about the time the gate opens on the 2011 Preakness. I have absolutely no idea what that might mean, but Astrology’s pedigree is a good sign that he’ll be close to the finish line when the race is won.
Posted by Roger Lyons on Thursday, May 19, 2011 at 6:43 am.
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Inbreeding to a Sire in the Female Line
by Roger Lyons
Sid Fernando recently posted on Eskendreya at his Sid Fernando + Observations blog, and he included a link to something he posted on Eskendereya at WTC’s Who’s Hot blog just after the Fountain of Youth, and I went back and read it again. In that earlier post Sid draws a parallel between the pedigrees of Eskendereya and Real Quiet. What do they have in common? Inbreeding to a sire in the female line.
That way of putting it is easier than saying “inbreeding to the sire of a mare in the female line,” which is more accurate. I recall that many years ago David Dink, in his broad study of inbreeding for the Thoroughbred Times, chose the simpler expression, so I’ll use it, too. David did a study so broad that it was almost guaranteed not to find any effects of inbreeding, but, as I recall, he did a special installment on inbreeding to a sire in the female line because it was the only pattern of inbreeding that actually did get results that exceeded opportunity.
Just before re-reading Sid’s post from late February, I had posted some comments on Eskendereya (my last post), among which was the observation that Giant’s Causeway really didn’t have a very good strike rate with Northern Dancer, that he liked Raise a Native a lot more, and that’s true. However, after re-reading Sid’s post, which was about inbreeding to Northern Dancer in the female line of Eskendereya, I checked the numbers for occurrences of Northern Dancer as a sire in the female line of mares that have produced foals by Giant’s Causeway. Sid is going to like what I found.
Giant’s Causeway had 12 mares whose dams were by Northern Dancer–inbred 4×3 to Northern Dancer. The only mare to produce a superior runner was the dam of Aragorn, a dual-G1 winner. The story is high quality, low frequency, but that’s not the end of it.
He sired foals out of 16 mares whose third dams were by Norther Dancer–inbred 4×4 to Northern Dancer. Two of those mares produced superior runners, including G1 winner Frost Giant and Model, a listed stakes winner. It seems fair to assess that provisionally as high quality, average frequency, especially since it’s Eskendereya’s pattern. He won’t be included in my tallies until after the classics.
Giant’s Causeway sired foals out of six mares whose fourth dams were by Northern Dancer–inbred 4×5 to Northern Dancer. Two of those mares produced G1 winners, including Red Giant and Internallyflawless. Unequivocally, that generational distance yielded high quality, high frequency.
Clearly, as far as Giant’s Causeway is concerned, there is something special about mares with Northern Dancer as a sire in the female line, and I wouldn’t be surprised to find that this approach does have broad effects for certain sires, as David Dink’s study found and as is suggested by Sid’s comparison. After all, Raise a Native is the key sire in Real Quiet’s female line. It’s not just a Northern Dancer thing, but generational distance could be a factor, especially in regard to frequency.
Posted by Roger Lyons on Sunday, April 11, 2010 at 3:19 pm.