Fine Tuning the Distorted Humor-A.P. Indy Nick
by Roger Lyons
Because of injury, Endorsement (Distorted Humor-Charmed Gift, by A.P. Indy) didn’t get to compete in the 2010 Kentucky Derby after qualifying with a runaway win in the Sunland Park Derby, but he did enough to confirm the value of the Distorted Humor-A.P. Indy nick. He also illustrates that the fortunes of a sire-line cross are not just a matter of chance, that nicks always arise from specific pedigree contexts, and that what can be learned about those pedigree contexts can profoundly affect the fortunes of the cross.
Distorted Humor has an especially discriminating taste for mares with Northern Dancer in their ancestries, perhaps because his own dam is by Northern Dancer’s son, Danzig. Let’s see how Northern Dancer plays in the pedigree context of the Distorted Humor-A.P. Indy cross.
Two mares by A.P. Indy contributed superior runners to Distorted Humor’s record through his 2006 crop, from 11 chances, yielding Any Given Saturday and Z Humor. His 2007 crop has yielded Endorsement and Bank the Eight, recent winner of the Frederico Tesio S. (L), bringing his strike rate with A.P. Indy mares to 4/23.
However, note that Z Humor is the only one of these four to be produced by a mare with Northern Dancer in her ancestry and that his dam, Offtheoldblock, has Northern Dancer through a daughter, Linda North.
This contrasts sharply with the opportunity Distorted Humor had through 2006. Seven of 11 mares with A.P. Indy in their ancestries also had Northern Dancer. Two were out of mares by Danzig, Distorted Humor’s broodmare sire, and, therefore, closely inbred. Two were out of Nijinsky II mares, with which Danzig himself crossed pretty well (8/33), but which tends to take the winning edge off runners by Distorted Humor. Another was out of a Deputy Minister-line mare, another out of a mare by Nureyev, and another out of a mare by Storm Cat. In other words, in all cases Northern Dancer descended through a son.
But, contrast those mares with the 13 contributing to Distorted Humor’s 2007 crop. Seven of those mares had Northern Dancer, six of them through sons. However, none of them had Northern Dancer through Danzig, and only one had Northern Dancer through Nijinsky II. A seventh mare had Northern Dancer as the sire of her second dam, and one out of a Deputy Minister mare also had Northern Dancer as the sire of her third dam.
Among the 12 Distorted Humor-A.P. Indy crosses of 2008, the shift away from linebreeding through Danzig and Nijinsky II–and the avoidance of male strains of Northern Dancer generally–is even more pronounced. Only three mares had Northern Dancer through a son, including The Minstrel, Deputy Minister, and Storm Cat–the latter two of the three being among the most adaptable strains of Northern Dancer in the North American racing environment. Even more significant, four of those 12 mares had Northern Dancer through females, ranging from the first to the third dams of the mares.
That 2008 crop is also locked and loaded as to quality. It includes Supercharger (dam of 2010 Ky Derby winner, Super Saver, by Maria’s Mon), Weekend in Indy (dam of G1 winner Any Given Saturday, by Distorted Humor), Tomisue’s Delight (dam of G1 winner Mr. Sidney, by Storm Cat), and Offtheoldblock (dam of G3 winner Z Humor, by Distorted Humor). That crop also includes a foal by Showpiece, by Holy Bull and a daughter of multiple graded stakes producer She’s a Winner (by A.P. Indy and dam of G1 winner Bluegrass Cat, by Storm Cat, and G2 winner Lord of the Game, by Saint Ballado), and a mare by A.P. Indy son Pulpit, but 10 of the 12 foals are out of mares by A.P. Indy.
Opportunity for the Distorted Humor-A.P. Indy cross has undergone a profound tranformation since 2006, not only as to the quality of mares, but also as to the form of Northern Dancer’s presence in, and absence from, their pedigree contexts. It will be interesting to see how that adjustment works out.
Roger,
Interesting post. I wonder at what point the further refinement of a cross becomes less statistically significant or significant at all. 4 from 23 (Distorted Humor/AP Indy) is probably significant but is further refinement of the 23 with more qualifiers lessen the significance to it being incidental? What is your experience here?
You also made comment that “Two were out of Nijinsky II mares, with which Danzig himself crossed pretty well (8/33), but which tends to take the winning edge off runners by Distorted Humor.” – A very brave statement just a couple of days after Drosselmeyer, a horse by a son of Nijinsky II whom in another post you question the ability of to be a superior runner because of the presence of Nijinsky II, runs out as the winner of the Belmont Stakes!
No to rub further salt but your post on Drosselmeyer by you was made a couple of posts after you commented on Frank Mitchell’s assertion that the distance of the Belmont was within the scope of Fly Down. You said “Fly Down is Mineshaft’s sixth Mr. Prospector-inbred stakes winner, but not at 3×4. He has the added disadvantage, at least with respect to distance limitations, of being inbred 3×3, which is a huge difference.” He was all but the winner a furlong from home.
Tough game this one!
June 11th, 2010 at 2:47 pmAb Abolendam, If you think 4/23 is statistically significant and you throw out members of the 23 that are unlike the four and end up with, say, 15, well, I suppose any reasonable person would say 4/15 is better than 4/23, whether it’s statistically significant or not. Statistical significance is beside the point.
Now, about Drosselmeyer. I believe I specifically identified Drosselmeyer as a superior runner by virtue of his second-place finish in the Dwyer. That’s pretty far from questioning “his ability to be a superior runner.” I did, in fact, suggest, based on the statistical effects evident among foals by Distorted Humor, that any limitations he has are probably attributable to the influence of Nijinsky II, and I stand by that as the most probable pedigree interpretation. Surely, you’re not suggesting that his winning the Belmont proves that he has no limitations at all.
I think I see the reason for the misunderstanding. Expecting a population of horses to reflect what is typical of their pedigrees, which is what I do, is very different from expecting an individual horse to be typical of its pedigree, which I don’t do. That would be like the pedigree analysts who assume that everything in a pedigree must be a good thing just because it happens to belong to a superior runner. They confuse the pedigree with the horse. One can be right about the pedigree even if the horse doesn’t go along for the ride. In a blog called “Pedigree Matters,” it’s understandable, I hope, that my purpose, first and foremost, is to get the pedigree right because breeders and buyers are interested in the future of the pedigree, not the horse. If an important horse deviates from its pedigree, then it’s good for breeders and buyers to know that.
I can say that only because I’m playing a different game from the game played by the pedigree analyst who takes an individual horse as proof of its pedigree. If that’s what you expect me to do, then I’m afraid I’ll disappoint you many times over. I’m looking at what population statistics say about a horse’s pedigree and trying to derive from that the most probable pedigree interpretation. Maybe that accounts for the difference between us. My approach is harder, but I think it’s better.
June 11th, 2010 at 7:34 pmDo you think this cross will be very effective when the pedigree is flipped? When Distorted Humor is the broodmare sire? Or what kind of broodmare sire do you think he is going to be?
June 13th, 2010 at 12:01 amPaddy, thanks for that good question, and it’s timely. A few months ago I did a survey of 257 fillies by Distorted Humor with a view toward rank ordering 22 top stallions as to the number of those fillies with which each stallion had statistical profiles that met certain minimal conditions relating to compatibility. Medaglia D’oro distanced the rest. He had a qualifying profile with 165 of those fillies, but that big difference is largely attributable to his nick with Forty Niner.
Pulpit was fourth, with 84, but caution about the question of a broad nick between A.P. Indy and Distorted Humor is in order. We know A.P. Indy and Pulpit do well with both Northern Dancer and Mr. Prospector, but the latter is problematic. I mean, Pulpit and Malibu Moon are both out of Mr. Prospector mares, and Tapit is inbred to Mr. Prospector. This factor will significanly delimit the potential of the A.P. Indy-Distorted Humor cross.
I don’t want to treat your question superficially. At some point (sooner rather than later) I’ll do some more comprehensive work on this and get back to it with a future post. It’s a productive line of inquiry. Thanks.
June 13th, 2010 at 9:18 am