Horse running through field

Ice Box and the Graustark Jinx

by Roger Lyons

Pulpit gets a superior runner out of about every 11th mare that produces at least one foal by him, which is not as good a strike rate as is expected of the very best stallions. This is due in great part to Pulpit’s extremely low strike rates with certain important ancestors of his mates. One of those is Graustark, which, by the way, is nemesis to a lot of stallions.

And the word “nemesis” is meant here to be understood in its mythic sense, fully loaded with as much determinism as it can carry. Maybe it takes an ancestor like Graustark to remind us that a horse’s pedigree is its fate. Graustark is one of those ancestors that asserts his influence routinely and persistently across multiple generational divides, despite ordinary inducements to variation. This can be inferred from the abysmal strike rates some stallions have with mares in descent of Graustark, including Pulpit.

Whatever traits are implicated must disagree profoundly with Pulpit’s idea about what his offspring should be like. Through his 2007 crop, he’s gone through 54 mares with Graustark in their ancestries, and Spice Island, the dam of Ice Box, is the only one of them that has managed to produce a superior runner by Pulpit. Spice Island is by Tabasco Cat, whose broodmare sire is Sauce Boat, by Key to the Mint, by Graustark. That’s how far Graustark’s influence has to descend in order to affect Ice Box adversely.

Spice Island’s ancestry is otherwise loaded with ancestors highly favorable to Pulpit. He has a strike rate of 7/43 with Tabasco Cat’s sire, Storm Cat. Ice Box’ second dam is by Alysheba, with whose sire, Alydar, Pulpit has the phenomenal strike rate of 10/43. With Speak John, sire of his third dam, Pulpit’s strike rate is 2/13. Moreover, the numbers in the background of those ancestors are so strong that, in spite of Graustark’s theoretically negative impact, Spice Island scores in the 96th percentile of mares that have produced foals by Pulpit, as determined by an aggregation of strike rates with all ancestors within six generations of each mare.

Graustark lurks in the shadows of ancestors that have had highly positive effects on Pulpit’s stud record. Therefore, whatever limitations Ice Box might have as a racehorse, especially insofar as they distinguish him from Pulpit’s more typical runners, are most likely attributable to Graustark’s influence. However, if it has anything to do with his distinctive closing style, it might actually be an advantage in a race like the Belmont.

2 comments to “Ice Box and the Graustark Jinx”

  • Allison Roulston writes:

    Does the curse likewise extend to Graustark’s full brother, His Majesty?

  • Roger Lyons writes:

    That’s inconclusive, Allison. Pulpit is 2/26 with His Majesty, the best of the two being Sightseeing, winner of the Peter Pan (G2) and out of a Pleasant Colony mare. Despite their being full siblings, His Majesty and Graustark are just two different ancestors as far as most stallions are concerned. Very few stallions work well with both, except Malibu Moon, which I’ve mentioned before, and many stallions that work well with one don’t work well with the other. A lot more stallions work well with His Majesty than work well with Graustark.

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